Tuesday, 03/11/25

Today's Conference Tournament Games

March 11, 2025

Table of Contents

ACC Tournament - 1st Round Preview

#13 Pittsburgh vs. #12 ND - 2:00 PM ET (ACCN)

In this ACC Tournament first-round matchup, the #13 seed Pittsburgh Panthers (17-14, 8-12 ACC) face the #12 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-17, 8-12 ACC). Both teams are desperate for a tournament win to keep their NCAA Tournament dreams alive, raising the stakes significantly. Pitt enters fresh off a commanding 93-67 win over Boston College, snapping a four-game losing streak, while Notre Dame stumbles in after dropping three straight. Despite their skid, the Irish boast the ACC’s leading scorer in conference play, Markus Burton (23.5 PPG), and a commanding historical edge, having won six of the last seven matchups against Pitt—including a 76-72 victory on February 22.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Pitt -3.5 (-115) | Notre Dame +3.5 (-105)

  • Moneyline: Pitt -172 | Notre Dame +142

  • Total: 137.5 (-110)

Pitt is favored after their recent rout, but their 1-6-1 ATS record over the last eight games and struggles on neutral or away courts raise concerns. Notre Dame, on the other hand, has covered in two of their last three ACC games and holds a 2-0-1 ATS record on neutral sites this season. The Irish’s 6-1 record against Pitt in the last seven meetings, combined with Burton’s scorching 31.5 PPG over his last four outings, makes them a live underdog. The 137.5 over/under feels low—February’s clash reached 148 points—and Pitt’s porous perimeter defense could struggle against Notre Dame’s outside shooting.

Best Bet: Notre Dame +3.5 (-105)
Notre Dame’s dominance in this rivalry, Burton’s scoring surge, and Pitt’s shaky form make the Irish a strong choice to keep this game tight. Pitt’s poor ATS trend and defensive lapses further support the pick. While the over 137.5 is intriguing given recent scoring trends, Notre Dame +3.5 offers the best value in what projects as a close battle.

#15 Cal vs. #10 Virginia Tech - 4:30 PM ET (ACCN)

In this ACC Tournament first-round clash, the #15 seed Cal Golden Bears (13-18, 6-14 ACC) take on the #10 seed Virginia Tech Hokies (13-18, 8-12 ACC). Both teams are fighting to extend their seasons, but they’ve stumbled into this matchup. Cal has dropped 7 of their last 8 games, though they’ve been scrappy against the spread, posting a 5-1-1 ATS record in their last 7. Virginia Tech hasn’t fared much better, losing 3 of their last 4, including a 65-47 dud against Clemson. The Hokies do have a trump card: a 71-68 win over Cal on January 11 as 7-point underdogs, powered by Jaydon Young’s bench spark. For Cal, Andrej Stojakovic (16.8 PPG) and freshman Jeremiah Wilkerson (36 points vs. Notre Dame) lead the charge, while Virginia Tech relies on Tobi Lawal’s athleticism and Ben Burnham’s scoring. With Cal struggling away from home (just 2 wins) and Virginia Tech holding the head-to-head edge, this game is a toss-up with postseason stakes.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Cal -2.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech +2.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Cal -145 | Virginia Tech +118

  • Total: 140.5 (-110)

Cal opens as a -2.5 favorite, buoyed by slight advantages in offensive efficiency (197th vs. 261st) and rebounding (33.3 RPG vs. 30.0). Yet, Virginia Tech’s earlier victory and Cal’s road woes make the Hokies an enticing dog. Cal’s 5-1-1 ATS run shows grit, but Virginia Tech’s 35.9% three-point shooting could punish Cal’s shaky perimeter defense (38.2% allowed). The 140.5 over/under is close to their prior game’s 139-point total, though Virginia Tech’s recent offensive slump hints at a lower score—tempered by Cal’s ability to push the pace.

Best Bet: Virginia Tech +2.5 (-110)
Virginia Tech +2.5 stands out as the sharp pick. Their win over Cal earlier this season, combined with Cal’s dismal away form, outweighs the Bears’ recent ATS success. The Hokies’ outside shooting gives them an edge in a game that should stay tight. Take Virginia Tech +2.5 to cover in a gritty, low-scoring scrap.

#14 Syracuse vs. #11 Florida State - 7:00 PM ET (ACCN)

In this ACC Tournament first-round clash, the #14 seed Syracuse Orange (13-18, 7-13 ACC) face the #11 seed Florida State Seminoles (17-14, 8-12 ACC). Syracuse is limping into this matchup, having lost their last four games by an average of 18.5 points, while Florida State is riding momentum from a 76-69 win over SMU. The Seminoles previously crushed Syracuse 90-74 on January 4 at home, capitalizing on their elite shot-blocking (16.8%, top-10 nationally) and a versatile 10-player rotation. Syracuse’s defense, ranked 316th in points allowed (78.4 PPG), is further compromised without big man Jesse Edwards, leaving them vulnerable inside. FSU’s leading scorer Jamir Watkins (18.5 PPG) and physical edge should dominate on the neutral floor.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Florida State -3.5 (-110) | Syracuse +3.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Florida State -172 | Syracuse +142

  • Total: 149.5 (-110)

Florida State is favored by 3.5 points, a line that aligns with their 16-point win over Syracuse earlier this season and the Orange’s recent skid. Syracuse’s 2-3 zone defense may struggle against FSU’s ability to attack zones, especially with their interior defense weakened. The total of 149.5 reflects both teams’ up-tempo play (FSU 64th, Syracuse 81st in pace), though FSU’s defensive depth could limit Syracuse’s output compared to their 164-point prior meeting.

Best Bet: Florida State -3.5 (-110)
Florida State -3.5 is the play here. Their prior blowout of Syracuse, combined with the Orange’s defensive woes and current losing streak, points to another comfortable win. FSU’s size, depth, and motivation—fueled by coach Leonard Hamilton’s retirement after this season—should secure a victory by at least 4 points.

American East Tournament - Semifinal Preview

#3 Maine vs. #2 Vermont - 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this America East Tournament semifinal, the #3 seed Maine Black Bears (19-13, 10-6 AE) face off against the #2 seed Vermont Catamounts (21-11, 13-3 AE) at Patrick Gymnasium in Burlington, VT. Vermont has owned this rivalry, riding a 10-game win streak against Maine, including a narrow 67-65 win on February 15 as 2.5-point underdogs. The Catamounts also hold an incredible 30-game home win streak against Maine, turning their home court into a fortress. Maine, however, has shown signs of life in the tournament, going 2-0 against the spread (ATS), while Vermont’s key player, Shamir Bogues (10.7 PPG, 1.7 SPG), is dealing with injury uncertainty. Maine’s recent offensive output (73.0 PPG) will challenge Vermont’s elite defense (90.5 points allowed per 100 possessions), promising an intriguing battle.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Vermont -5.5 (-110) | Maine +5.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Vermont -170 | Maine +143

  • Total: 123.5 (-110)

Vermont is listed as a 5.5-point favorite, up from an earlier -4.5, reflecting their dominance at home and in the series. That said, Maine’s near-upset in their last meeting (losing by just 2 points) and Vermont’s potential weakness with Bogues’ injury make the Black Bears a viable underdog. The total is set at 123.5, a slight bump from 122.5, with both teams trending toward the over this season (Vermont: 20 of 32 games; Maine: 21 of 32). Their February matchup finished at 132 points, though Vermont’s defense might clamp down in this high-stakes semifinal.

Best Bet: Maine +5.5 (-110)
Go with Maine +5.5. Vermont’s injury question mark with Bogues, paired with Maine’s strong tournament play and their ability to keep the last game close, suggests this one could stay tight. Even if Vermont pulls out the win, Maine has a solid shot to keep it within 5.5 points. Maine +5.5 is the sharp pick here.

#4 Albany vs. #1 Bryant - 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this America East Tournament semifinal, the #4 seed Albany Great Danes (19-13, 11-5 AE) face off against the #1 seed Bryant Bulldogs (21-10, 13-3 AE) at Bryant’s home court, Chace Athletic Center. Bryant comes in as the top seed with a potent offense, averaging 82.2 points per game and holding a +256 scoring differential (8.0 points per game). However, they’ve struggled to cover large spreads, posting a 4-6 ATS record as 9.5+ point favorites. Albany, on the other hand, has shown resilience, notably upsetting Bryant 68-63 on February 6 in a road game. Justin Neely (7.1 rebounds per game) anchors Albany’s rebounding, while Bryant’s fast-paced attack (18th nationally in scoring) will aim to dominate. Despite Bryant’s home advantage, Albany’s prior success suggests this could be a tighter contest than the odds imply.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Bryant -10.5 (-110) | Albany +10.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Bryant -500 | Albany +375

  • Total: 152.5 (-110)

Bryant is favored by 10.5 points, up from an earlier -9.5, reflecting confidence in their home-court edge. Yet, their 4-6 ATS mark as heavy favorites and Albany’s earlier victory cast doubt on their ability to cover. The total of 152.5 (down from 153.5) aligns with both teams’ over tendencies—Bryant hits the over in 20 of 32 games, Albany in 21 of 32—though their last meeting totaled just 131 points. Models project a higher-scoring game closer to 168, making the over tempting but less certain given the postseason stakes.

Best Bet: Albany +10.5 (-110)
Albany +10.5 is the smart pick. Bryant may win at home, but their inconsistent ATS performance as a big favorite, combined with Albany’s proven ability to hang tough (and even win) against them, suggests the Great Danes will keep this within 10.5 points. Take the underdog with confidence.

Big 12 Tournament- 1st Round Preview

#11 Cincinnati vs. #14 Oklahoma State - 12:30 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this Big 12 Tournament first-round matchup, the #11 seed Cincinnati Bearcats (17-14, 7-13 Big 12) take on the #14 seed Oklahoma State Cowboys (15-16, 7-13 Big 12) at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. Cincinnati enters on a three-game skid but boasts a stout defense ranked 24th nationally, allowing just 65.3 points per game. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is coming off a confidence-boosting 78-67 home win over Cincinnati on March 8, led by Abou Ousmane’s 24 points and eight rebounds. The Bearcats will lean on Jizzle James (12.9 PPG), who’s capable of big scoring outbursts, to ignite their 70.5 PPG offense. With NCAA Tournament hopes on the line, Cincinnati’s defensive edge should shine, though Oklahoma State’s recent upset keeps things interesting.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Cincinnati -6.5 (-110) | Oklahoma State +6.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Cincinnati -250 | Oklahoma State +205

  • Total: 137.5 (-110)

Cincinnati’s -6.5 spread reflects their defensive dominance and 7-6 ATS record as favorites of 6.5+ points. Oklahoma State has won five of the last seven meetings, including their latest 11-point victory, but that was on their home floor—neutral-site dynamics favor the Bearcats. The -250 moneyline gives Cincinnati a 71.4% implied win probability, while Oklahoma State’s +205 offers value for an upset. The 137.5 total is below the teams’ combined 143.2 PPG average, suggesting a defensive battle led by Cincinnati’s top-25 unit.

Best Bet: Cincinnati -6.5 (-110)
Go with Cincinnati -6.5. Their elite defense, neutral-court advantage, and urgency to secure an NCAA bid should overpower Oklahoma State’s porous defense (76.2 PPG allowed). The Cowboys’ recent win is noted, but Cincinnati’s 7-6 ATS mark as favorites and overall talent make this a solid cover at -6.5.

#13 Colorado vs. #12 TCU - 3:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this Big 12 Tournament first-round matchup, the #13 seed Colorado Buffaloes (12-19, 3-17 Big 12) face off against the #12 seed TCU Horned Frogs (16-15, 9-11 Big 12) at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. Colorado enters with momentum, having covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games, highlighted by a commanding 76-56 victory over TCU on March 8. Meanwhile, TCU has had a stronger overall season but has faltered offensively, surpassing 69 points just once in their last 6 games. The Buffaloes boast a rebounding advantage (+2.5 per game), while TCU’s defense, ranked 55th nationally, holds opponents to 31.4% from beyond the arc. With each team winning their home game in the regular-season series, this neutral-site battle is set to be a close one.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: TCU -2.5 (-110) | Colorado +2.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: TCU -142 | Colorado +119

  • Total: 133.5 (-110)

TCU is favored by 2.5 points, buoyed by their better record, but Colorado’s recent form—including a 20-point rout of TCU—and a 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games make them a compelling underdog. The moneyline implies a 58.7% win probability for TCU, yet Colorado’s +119 odds present upside for an outright victory. The 133.5 total sits slightly above the 132 points from their last meeting, but TCU’s stout defense and both teams’ offensive struggles point toward a lower-scoring game.

Best Bet: Colorado +2.5 (-110)
Go with Colorado +2.5. Their recent dominance over TCU, paired with strong ATS performance, positions them well to keep this game tight or even steal the win. The narrow spread bolsters the value of this pick in what’s likely to be a hard-fought contest.

#15 Arizona State vs. #10 Kansas State - 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this Big 12 Tournament first-round game at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, the #15 seed Arizona State Sun Devils (13-18, 3-17 Big 12) face off against the #10 seed Kansas State Wildcats (15-16, 9-11 Big 12). Arizona State has struggled this season, dropping 10 of their last 11 games, but they did secure a notable 66-54 win over Kansas State on February 23. The Wildcats, meanwhile, have had an up-and-down year, reflected in their 15-16 record, and will aim to leverage their proximity to home in this matchup.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Kansas State -6.5 (-110) | Arizona State +6.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Kansas State -250 | Arizona State +205

  • Total: 145.5 (-110)

The -6.5 spread for Kansas State seems generous given Arizona State’s recent dominance in their head-to-head matchup. The Sun Devils hold a 15-15 against-the-spread (ATS) record this season, while Kansas State sits at 17-14 ATS. The moneyline implies a 71.4% win probability for Kansas State, but Arizona State’s +205 odds present intriguing value for an outright upset. The 145.5 over/under is notably higher than the 120 points scored in their last meeting, and with Kansas State hitting the under in 15 of 26 games—combined with Arizona State’s defensive capability—this game could trend toward a lower total.

Best Bet: Arizona State +6.5 (-110)
Arizona State +6.5 is the smart pick here. Their convincing 12-point win over Kansas State in February, even amid injury setbacks, indicates they can keep this game competitive. The 6.5-point spread overestimates Kansas State’s edge, making the Sun Devils a solid underdog choice.

#14 UCF vs. #11 Utah - 9:30 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this Big 12 Tournament first-round matchup, the #14 seed UCF Knights (16-15, 7-13 Big 12) take on the #11 seed Utah Utes (16-15, 8-12 Big 12) at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. Utah enters with a slight edge, favored by 1.5 points, while UCF looks to replicate their 76-72 home victory over Utah on February 23. The Utes boast a strong rebounding advantage, averaging 35.7 rebounds per game and outrebounding opponents by 4.9 boards (24th nationally), compared to UCF’s -1.5 rebound margin. Utah also excels in ball control, ranking 57th nationally with a 1.39 assist-to-turnover ratio, far better than UCF’s 1.11 (205th). However, UCF’s offense averages 79.0 points per game to Utah’s 75.3, though their defense allows a concerning 80.6 points. Injuries to UCF’s Jordan Ivy-Curry and Jaylin Sellers further complicate their chances.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Utah -1.5 (-110) | UCF +1.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Utah -120 | UCF +100

  • Total: 156.5 (-110)

Utah’s -1.5 spread reflects their superior ATS record (16-15) and rebounding dominance, while UCF’s 13-18 ATS mark and injuries make them a risky underdog. The moneyline favors Utah at -120, implying a 54.5% win probability, with UCF’s +100 odds offering even money for an upset. The 156.5 total is high, considering their previous game totaled 148 points, and Utah’s defense allows just 70.6 points per game.

Best Bet: Utah -1.5 (-110)
Utah -1.5 is the sharp play. Their rebounding, ball control, and lack of injuries give them the edge over a UCF team hampered by health issues and defensive struggles. The neutral site levels the playing field, but Utah’s efficiency and depth should carry them to a narrow victory.

Big Sky Tournament - Semifinal Preview

#5 Montana State vs. #1 Northern Colorado - 9:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this Big Sky Tournament semifinal, the #5 seed Montana State Bobcats (15-17, 9-9 Big Sky) take on the #1 seed Northern Colorado Bears (24-8, 15-3 Big Sky) at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho. Northern Colorado has dominated the season series, winning both regular-season matchups (74-73 on January 11 and 73-66 on February 8), and enters with a 24-point quarterfinal rout of Weber State on March 9. Montana State, however, has found new life in the tournament, beating Sacramento State 74-71 on March 9 and Idaho State 80-60 on March 10. The Bears’ offense averages 81.1 points per game (30th nationally), led by Isaiah Hawthorne (17.8 PPG), while the Bobcats counter with 72.2 points and a resurgent defense allowing 69.6 points per game.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Northern Colorado -5.5 (-110) | Montana State +5.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Northern Colorado -250 | Montana State +205

  • Total: 145.5 (-110)

Northern Colorado’s -5.5 spread reflects their season-long edge and recent blowout, though Montana State’s tournament form (2-0) and close losses in prior meetings keep them in play. The Bears are 15-15 ATS, improving to 6-4 in their last 10, while Montana State’s 13-17 ATS record includes a competitive underdog history. The 145.5 total sits just below their combined average (147-149 points), with Northern Colorado’s fast pace favoring the over and Montana State’s defense leaning under.

Best Bet: Northern Colorado -5.5 (-110)
Northern Colorado -5.5 is the top pick. Their offensive strength, rest advantage, and two wins over Montana State this season point to a victory by 6 or more. The Bobcats’ recent run is notable, but the Bears’ consistency makes them the sharper choice.

#6 Idaho vs. #2 Montana - 11:30 PM ET (ESPN2)

In this Big Sky Tournament semifinal, the #6 seed Idaho Vandals (14-18, 8-10 Big Sky) face the #2 seed Montana Grizzlies (23-9, 15-3 Big Sky) at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho. Montana has been dominant, winning 9 of their last 10 games, including an 87-81 quarterfinal victory over Portland State on March 10, led by Aanen Moody’s 26.5 PPG over his last four outings. Idaho has found tournament grit, upsetting Sacramento State 72-64 on March 9 and Portland State 67-56 on March 10. The Grizzlies swept the regular-season series (74-72 on January 11, 80-75 on February 8) and hold a 9-1 record in their last 10 meetings with Idaho. Montana’s offense (77.6 PPG) should test Idaho’s shaky defense (75.5 PPG allowed).

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Montana -6.5 (-110) | Idaho +6.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Montana -250 | Idaho +205

  • Total: 146.5 (-110)

Montana’s -6.5 spread reflects their season-long edge and 17-11-1 ATS record, bolstered by an 8-2 ATS mark in their last 10 games. Idaho’s 12-17-1 ATS record and recent wins keep them competitive, but Montana’s 9-1 series dominance favors the favorite. The -250 moneyline gives Montana a 71.4% win probability, while Idaho’s +205 offers upset value. The 146.5 total is just below their 151.8 PPG combined average, with both teams trending over (Montana 62.1%, Idaho 63.3%).

Best Bet: Montana -6.5 (-110)
Montana -6.5 is the sharp pick. Their offensive consistency, recent form, and historical success against Idaho point to a win by 7 or more. The Grizzlies’ depth should overpower Idaho’s tournament surge, making this a confident choice.

CUSA Tournament - 1st Round Preview

#9 Sam Houston vs. #8 UTEP - 6:30 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this Conference USA Tournament first-round clash, the #9 seed Sam Houston Bearkats (13-18, 6-12 CUSA) face the #8 seed UTEP Miners (17-14, 7-11 CUSA) at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama. UTEP enters on a hot streak, winning 4 of their last 5 games, while Sam Houston has dropped 8 of their last 11, though they edged UTEP 89-87 on March 6 with a last-second three. The Miners split the season series, taking the January 4 matchup 81-72 at home. UTEP’s defense ranks 6th nationally in forcing turnovers (16.4 per game), a key advantage against Sam Houston’s 12.2 turnovers per game (263rd). The Bearkats counter with a 39.1% three-point shooting clip (9th nationally), led by Lamar Wilkerson (20.4 PPG), making this a tight neutral-site battle.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: UTEP -2.5 (-110) | Sam Houston +2.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: UTEP -135 | Sam Houston +115

  • Total: 146.5 (-110)

UTEP’s -2.5 spread reflects their late-season form (6-3 ATS in last 9) and turnover-forcing edge, while Sam Houston’s 9-22 ATS record and recent win over UTEP keep the +2.5 in play. The moneyline gives UTEP a 57.4% win probability at -135, with Sam Houston’s +115 offering upset value. The 146.5 total is just below their 148.4 PPG combined average, with prior meetings averaging 164.5 points, favoring the over.

Best Bet: UTEP -2.5 (-110)
UTEP -2.5 is the sharp pick. Their defensive pressure and recent surge outweigh Sam Houston’s inconsistent play and turnover woes. The Miners should win by 3 or more, making this a confident choice despite the Bearkats’ three-point threat.

#10 FIU vs. #7 WKU - 9:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this Conference USA Tournament first-round matchup, the #10 seed FIU Panthers (9-22, 3-15 CUSA) take on the #7 seed WKU Hilltoppers (17-14, 8-10 CUSA) at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama. WKU split their regular-season series with FIU, falling 85-66 at FIU on January 16 but rebounding with a 76-67 home win on March 6. The Hilltoppers, led by Don McHenry (17.2 PPG), average 75.3 PPG and rank 13th nationally in tempo, while FIU’s Jayden Brewer (14.3 PPG) powers a 71.0 PPG offense that’s dropped 3 straight games. WKU holds a 39-11 series edge, including 5 consecutive neutral-site wins, and their 17-14 ATS record outshines FIU’s 11-19 mark.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: WKU -4.5 (-110) | FIU +4.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: WKU -190 | FIU +160

  • Total: 142.5 (-110)

WKU’s -4.5 spread reflects their recent 9-point win over FIU and 6-4 ATS run in their last 10 games, while FIU’s 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 and 4-8 as a 4.5+ underdog suggest struggle. The -190 moneyline gives WKU a 65.5% win probability, with FIU’s +160 offering upset potential. The 142.5 total is below their 146.55 PPG combined average, but their 147-point average in prior meetings leans over.

Best Bet: WKU -4.5 (-110)
WKU -4.5 is the sharp pick. Their fast pace, McHenry’s scoring, and historical dominance (9-2 in last 11 vs. FIU) should secure a win by 5 or more. FIU’s recent skid and defensive woes (76.8 PPG allowed) make this a confident choice.

CAA Tournament - Final Preview

#12 Delaware vs. #2 UNCW - 7:00 PM ET (CBS Sports Network)

In this Coastal Athletic Association (CAA) Tournament Championship matchup, the #12 seed Delaware Blue Hens (16-19, 5-13 CAA) face the #2 seed UNC Wilmington Seahawks (26-7, 14-4 CAA) at CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C. UNCW swept the regular-season series, winning 79-74 at home on January 14, 77-67 at Delaware on February 6, and 88-58 at home on March 1. The Seahawks, led by Donovan Newby (14.2 PPG), average 79.9 PPG and rank 17th nationally in rebounding (36.1 RPG), while Delaware’s John Camden (17 PPG) powers a 76.4 PPG offense riding a 4-game tournament win streak. UNCW holds a 3-0 edge this season and a 14-1 record in their last 15 night games vs. CAA foes, though Delaware’s 15-19 ATS record has flipped to 3-1 in the tournament.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: UNCW -8.5 (-110) | Delaware +8.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: UNCW -375 | Delaware +300

  • Total: 148.5 (-110)

UNCW’s -8.5 spread reflects their season-long dominance and 15-point average margin over Delaware in three wins, with a 20-11 ATS record outpacing Delaware’s 15-19 mark. However, Delaware’s 2-1 ATS as an 8.5+ underdog and red-hot tournament form (4-0, all upsets) challenge UNCW’s 3-5 ATS as an 8.5+ favorite. The -375 moneyline gives UNCW a 78.9% win probability, but Delaware’s +300 offers upset intrigue. The 148.5 total sits below their 156.3 PPG combined average, though two of three head-to-heads this season stayed under.

Best Bet: Delaware +8.5 (-110)
Riding Delaware’s Cinderella wave feels right here. Their four straight upset wins—averaging 83 PPG in the tournament—and competitive showings (5- and 10-point losses) in two of three UNCW matchups suggest they’ll hang within 8.5. UNCW’s rebounding edge (36.1 vs. 27.9 RPG) and fresher legs could seal the win, but Delaware’s “nothing to lose” vibe and John Camden’s hot hand make this a solid cover play. Fatigue might bite late, but this streak has too much juice to bet against.

Horizon League Tournament - Final Preview

#4 Youngstown State vs. #1 Robert Morris - 7:00 PM ET (ESPN)

In this Horizon League Tournament Championship matchup, the #4 seed Youngstown State Penguins (21-12, 13-7 Horizon) take on the #1 seed Robert Morris Colonials (25-8, 15-5 Horizon) at Corteva Coliseum in Indianapolis, Indiana. The teams split their regular-season series, with Youngstown State winning 71-57 at home on December 7, 2024, and Robert Morris edging out a 72-70 road victory on January 22, 2025. The Penguins, led by Nico Galette (14.0 PPG), average 74.4 PPG and ride a 7-2 run in their last 9, including a 56-54 semifinal upset over Cleveland State. Robert Morris, powered by Alvaro Folgueiras (13.1 PPG, 10.0 RPG), averages 76.5 PPG and boasts a 9-game win streak after a 79-76 overtime semifinal win over Oakland. Youngstown State holds a 2-1 neutral-site record this season, while Robert Morris is 1-0, with the Colonials leading 6-4 in the last 10 meetings.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Robert Morris -3.5 (-110) | Youngstown State +3.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Robert Morris -175 | Youngstown State +146

  • Total: 136.5 (-110)

Robert Morris’s -3.5 spread reflects their top-seed status and 19-12 ATS record, tightened from -4, while Youngstown State’s 15-14-1 ATS mark includes a 4-1 clip as 3.5+ point underdogs. The Colonials are 6-3 ATS in their last 9, but the Penguins match that pace and stunned Robert Morris by 14 earlier. The -175 moneyline gives Robert Morris a 63.6% win probability, yet Youngstown State’s +146 shines with upset potential after their defensive semifinal showing. The 136.5 total sits below their 150.9 PPG combined average but fits their 135 PPG head-to-head mark, with the under hitting in 3 of their last 4 meetings.

Best Bet: Youngstown State +146
I’m all in on Youngstown State pulling the upset at +146. Their defensive tenacity (Cleveland State at 36.7% FG), balanced scoring, and a prior 14-point rout of Robert Morris outweigh the Colonials’ streak. Robert Morris might feel the overtime grind from last night, and with the Penguins’ 2-1 neutral-site record, this moneyline offers serious value for an NCAA bid steal. The +3.5 and under 136.5 are in play, but I’m betting on Youngstown State to win outright.

MAAC Tournament - 1st Round Preview

#9 Siena vs. #8 Rider - 6:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) Tournament first-round matchup, the #9 seed Siena Saints (14-17, 9-11 MAAC) face the #8 seed Rider Broncs (13-18, 8-12 MAAC) at Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. The teams met once this season on February 8, 2025, with Rider nipping Siena 61-59 at home on a Tank Byard buzzer-beater. The Saints, led by Justice Shoats (16.0 PPG, 4.5 APG), average 72.1 PPG but rank 313th nationally in rebounding (29.6 RPG), while Rider’s TJ Weeks Jr. (14.1 PPG) and Tariq Ingraham (10.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG) power a 70.0 PPG offense with 34.8 RPG. Siena’s 15-15-1 ATS record edges Rider’s 14-16 ATS, with the Broncs fresh off a 77-76 thriller over Niagara on March 8, while Siena’s dropped 3 of their last 4.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Siena -4.5 (-110) | Rider +4.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Siena -190 | Rider +160

  • Total: 136.5 (-110)

Siena’s -4.5 spread bucks their 61-59 loss to Rider, where they covered as +9.5 underdogs, leaning on a 15-15-1 ATS record (10-2 in MAAC play) vs. Rider’s 14-16 ATS (7-8 as underdogs). The Saints are 4-1 ATS as favorites of 4.5 or less, while Rider’s 4-2 ATS in their last 6 (after a 77-76 Niagara win) shows momentum. The -190 moneyline gives Siena a 65.5% win probability despite the prior defeat, with Rider’s +160 buoyed by their buzzer-beater and recent form, though offset by a 1-5 neutral-site record. The 136.5 total dwarfs their 120-point head-to-head, with Siena’s 72.1 PPG and Rider’s 70.0 PPG hinting at a tighter contest.

Best Bet: Rider +4.5 (-110)
Rider +4.5 looks like the play tonight. Their 61-59 win over Siena last month and a clutch 77-76 victory against Niagara on March 8—capped by Flash Burton’s game-winning three—show they’ve got fight. Siena’s shaky form (3-7 in their last 10) and rebounding woes (29.6 RPG) could let Rider’s 34.8 RPG keep this within 4. The under 136.5 tempts after their 120-point meeting, but I’m betting on Rider’s momentum to cover, even if Siena sneaks the win.

#10 Fairfield vs. #7 Sacred Heart - 8:30 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) Tournament first-round matchup, the #10 seed Fairfield Stags (12-19, 8-12 MAAC) face the #7 seed Sacred Heart Pioneers (14-17, 10-10 MAAC) at Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Sacred Heart swept their regular-season series, winning 77-71 on the road February 8, 2025, and 83-62 at home March 2, 2025. The Stags, led by Prophet Johnson (13.5 PPG, 7.7 RPG), average 67.6 PPG with 7.3 threes per game (32.7% 3PT), while Sacred Heart’s Tanner Thomas (14.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and Mekhi Conner (11.8 PPG) power a 76.4 PPG offense. Fairfield’s 14-16 ATS record trails Sacred Heart’s 16-14 ATS, with the Stags at 2-3 and the Pioneers at 2-3 on neutral courts this season.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Sacred Heart -4.5 (-110) | Fairfield +4.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Sacred Heart -190 | Fairfield +160

  • Total: 145.5 (-110)

Sacred Heart’s -4.5 spread reflects their 2-0 sweep over Fairfield (6- and 21-point wins), backed by a 16-14 ATS record (5-3 ATS as 4.5+ favorites) vs. Fairfield’s 14-16 ATS (7-8 ATS as underdogs, 3-1 at 4.5 or less). The Pioneers’ 76.4 PPG offense faces Fairfield’s 72.7 PPG defense, while the Stags’ 7.3 threes test Sacred Heart’s 75.5 PPG allowed. The -190 moneyline gives Sacred Heart a 65.5% win probability, with Fairfield’s +160 offering upset potential, though dulled by their 0-2 head-to-head mark and 7-17 underdog record. The 145.5 total matches their last game’s 145 and sits below their 144 PPG combined average, with their February clash hitting 148.

Best Bet: Over 145.5 (-110)
I’m doubling down on the over 145.5 here—their games hit 148 and 145, and Sacred Heart’s 76.4 PPG paired with Fairfield’s shaky 72.7 PPG defense should push this past the line. The Pioneers’ sweep (average 8.5-point margin) supports -4.5, but Fairfield’s three-point threat (7.3 makes) could keep it tight, juicing the total. Tournament stakes might tighten things, but I’m betting their offensive trends hold up over a low-scoring grind.

NEC Tournament - Final Preview

#3 Saint Francis (PA) vs. #1 Central Connecticut State - 7:00 PM ET (ESPN2)

In this Northeast Conference (NEC) Tournament Championship matchup, the #3 seed Saint Francis (PA) Red Flash (15-17, 10-8 NEC) face the #1 seed Central Connecticut State Blue Devils (25-6, 16-2 NEC) at William H. Detrick Gymnasium in New Britain, Connecticut. CCSU swept their regular-season series, winning 74-59 on the road January 4, 2025, and 76-61 at home February 15, 2025. The Red Flash, led by Riley Parker (13.6 PPG) and Valentino Pinedo (10.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG), average 71.8 PPG with 7.8 threes per game (35.4% 3PT), while CCSU’s Tre Breland (12.8 PPG) and Allan Jeanne-Rose (11.5 PPG) power a 73.9 PPG offense backed by a top-15 national defense (64.4 PPG allowed). SFPA’s 16-13 ATS record trails CCSU’s 20-9 ATS, with the Red Flash on a 5-game win streak and the Blue Devils riding 14 straight victories.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: CCSU -11.5 (-110) | SFPA +11.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: CCSU -510 | SFPA +381

  • Total: 134.5 (-110)

CCSU’s -11.5 spread reflects their 2-0 sweep of SFPA (15-point average margin) and NEC-best 20-9 ATS record (6-2 ATS as double-digit favorites), while SFPA’s 16-13 ATS includes 8-5 as 10+ point underdogs and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5. The Blue Devils’ 64.4 PPG defense faces SFPA’s 71.8 PPG offense, with the Red Flash’s 7.8 threes testing CCSU’s 8.8 SPG. The -510 moneyline gives CCSU an 83.6% win probability, with SFPA’s +381 buoyed by their streak but dulled by a 0-4 skid vs. CCSU. The 134.5 total sits below their 145.7 PPG combined average, with head-to-heads at 133 and 137.

Best Bet: Under 134.5 (-110)
The under 134.5 is my pick to click tonight. CCSU’s elite defense (64.4 PPG allowed, 10.9 FTA) should choke SFPA’s offense, which scraped by with 65 and 71 in OT wins, while their last clash hit 133. SFPA’s interior game might snag points, but CCSU’s low-foul style and home lockdown (15-1) cap this below 134.5. The -11.5 tempts—CCSU’s beaten SFPA by 14+ twice—but I’m betting on a defensive slugfest over a runaway score.

SLC Tournament - Semifinal Preview

#4 Northwestern State vs. #1 McNeese State - 7:00 PM ET (ESPNU)

In this Southland Conference Tournament semifinal matchup, the #4 seed Northwestern State Demons (17-15, 12-8 Southland) face the #1 seed McNeese State Cowboys (25-6, 19-1 Southland) at The Legacy Center in Lake Charles, Louisiana. McNeese swept their regular-season series, winning 65-50 at home January 13, 2025, and 92-69 on the road February 10, 2025. The Demons, led by Addison Patterson (13.1 PPG) and Micah Thomas (11.9 PPG), average 68.8 PPG with 7.2 threes per game (35.8% 3PT), while McNeese’s Javohn Garcia (13.3 PPG, 1.5 SPG) and Christian Shumate (10.5 PPG) power a 77.5 PPG offense backed by a top-15 national defense (64.4 PPG allowed). NWST’s 17-12-1 ATS record tops McNeese’s 14-16 ATS, with the Demons on a 5-game win streak and the Cowboys riding 6 straight victories.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: McNeese -16.5 (-110) | NWST +16.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: McNeese -1200 | NWST +750

  • Total: 131.5 (-110)

McNeese’s -16.5 spread reflects their 2-0 sweep of NWST (19-point average margin) and 14-16 ATS record (1-3 ATS as 16.5+ favorites), while NWST’s 17-12-1 ATS includes 4-2 as 16.5+ underdogs and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10. The Cowboys’ 64.4 PPG defense faces NWST’s 68.8 PPG offense, with the Demons’ 7.2 threes testing McNeese’s 8.8 SPG. The -1200 moneyline gives McNeese a 95% win probability, with NWST’s +750 buoyed by their streak but dulled by a 0-5 skid vs. McNeese at this level. The 131.5 total sits below their 146.3 PPG combined average, with head-to-heads at 115 and 161.

Best Bet: Under 131.5 (-110)
I’m locking in the under 131.5 for this one—McNeese’s top-15 defense (64.4 PPG allowed) should clamp down on NWST’s fatigued squad (four games in four days), who’ve averaged 66.8 PPG lately. Their January clash hit just 115, and McNeese’s low-foul style (10.9 FTA) limits bonus points. NWST’s grit might flirt with +16.5, but I’m betting on a stifled score over a runaway margin tonight.

#3 Nicholls State vs. #2 Lamar - 9:30 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this Southland Conference Tournament semifinal matchup, the #3 seed Nicholls State Colonels (20-12, 13-7 Southland) face the #2 seed Lamar Cardinals (19-13, 13-6 Southland) at The Legacy Center in Lake Charles, Louisiana. Lamar swept their regular-season series, winning 78-74 in overtime on the road January 20, 2025, and 65-53 at home March 3, 2025. The Colonels, led by Jamal West Jr. (13.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG) and Robert Brown III (13.1 PPG), average 74.6 PPG with 7.8 threes per game (34.8% 3PT), while Lamar’s Ja’Sean Jackson (11.9 PPG, 1.8 SPG) and Robert Brown (11.6 PPG) power a 70.5 PPG offense backed by a top-tier defense (66.6 PPG allowed). Nicholls’ 18-11-2 ATS record edges Lamar’s 17-13-1 ATS, with the Colonels on a 5-game win streak and the Cardinals fresh off a 65-52 quarterfinal win.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Nicholls -1 (-110) | Lamar +1 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Nicholls -120 | Lamar +100

  • Total: 136.5 (-110)

Nicholls’ -1 spread bucks Lamar’s 2-0 sweep (8-point average margin), leaning on an 18-11-2 ATS record (7-5-1 ATS as 1-point favorites) vs. Lamar’s 17-13-1 ATS (8-6-1 as underdogs). The Colonels’ 74.6 PPG offense and free-throw edge (22 FTA) face Lamar’s 66.6 PPG defense, while the Cardinals’ 12.1 forced turnovers test Nicholls’ ballhandling. The -120 moneyline gives Nicholls a 54.5% win probability, with Lamar’s +100 lifted by their head-to-head wins but tempered by Nicholls’ streak. The 136.5 total sits below their 145.1 PPG combined average, with head-to-heads at 152 (OT) and 118.

Best Bet: Under 136.5 (-110)
The under 136.5 is where I’m hanging my hat tonight. Lamar’s stingy defense (66.6 PPG allowed) and Nicholls’ potential fatigue (four games in four days, 15 turnovers last night) should choke this below 136.5, echoing their 118-point clash in March. Nicholls -1 has legs with their 5-0 run, but I’m betting on a defensive standoff over a razor-thin margin in this semifinal grind.

SWAC Tournament - 1st Round Preview

#9 Alabama A&M vs. #8 Grambling State - 2:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) Tournament first-round matchup, the #9 seed Alabama A&M Bulldogs (10-21, 6-12 SWAC) face the #8 seed Grambling State Tigers (10-21, 7-11 SWAC) at Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama. Grambling swept their regular-season series, winning 60-50 on the road February 10, 2025, and 74-73 at home March 6, 2025. The Bulldogs, led by Anthony Bryant (14.2 PPG, 1.4 SPG) and Chad Moodie (11.1 PPG, 6.0 RPG), average 73.6 PPG but rank 346th in offensive efficiency, while Grambling’s Kintavious Dozier (12.0 PPG) and Antwan Barnett (11.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG) power a 66.8 PPG offense backed by a stout defense (68.4 PPG allowed). Alabama A&M’s 8-20 ATS record trails Grambling’s 11-17 ATS, with both teams struggling at 3-7 in their last 10.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Grambling -4.5 (-110) | Alabama A&M +4.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Grambling -200 | Alabama A&M +170

  • Total: 129.5 (-110)

Grambling’s -4.5 spread reflects their 2-0 sweep of Alabama A&M (5.5-point average margin), with an 11-17 ATS record (4-5 ATS as 4.5+ favorites) topping Alabama A&M’s 8-20 ATS (5-8 as 4.5+ underdogs). The Tigers’ 68.4 PPG defense faces Alabama A&M’s 73.6 PPG offense, while the Bulldogs’ slow pace tests Grambling’s 71st-ranked D. The -200 moneyline gives Grambling a 66.7% win probability, with Alabama A&M’s +170 lifted by their recent 73-point effort but dulled by a 2-11 road mark. The 129.5 total sits below their 140.4 PPG combined average, with head-to-heads at 110 and 147.

Best Bet: Grambling -4.5 (-110)
Grambling -4.5 is my call today—their lockdown defense (68.4 PPG allowed) and 2-0 sweep, including a 10-point road win, should clear Alabama A&M’s shaky offense (346th efficiency) and sieve-like D (79.0 PPG allowed) by 5 or more. The Bulldogs might lean on pace to hang around, but I’m betting on the Tigers’ edge to shine through over the under 129.5, which teases with their 110-point February game but risks their 147-point outlier.

#10 Prairie View A&M vs. #7 Florida A&M - 8:30 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) Tournament first-round matchup, the #10 seed Prairie View A&M Panthers (5-26, 4-14 SWAC) face the #7 seed Florida A&M Rattlers (13-16, 10-8 SWAC) at Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama. The teams split their regular-season series, with FAMU winning 91-57 on the road January 11, 2025, and PV taking a 75-64 victory at home February 10, 2025. The Panthers, led by Nick Anderson (18.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and Tanahj Pettway (17.0 PPG), average 74.8 PPG with 6.6 threes per game (33.5% 3PT), while FAMU’s Sterling Young (17.0 PPG) and Milton Matthews (14.4 PPG) power a 71.9 PPG offense with 7.8 threes per game (34.5% 3PT). PV’s 13-17 ATS record lags behind FAMU’s SWAC-best 21-6 ATS, with the Panthers mired in a 1-9 skid and the Rattlers at 5-4 in their last 9.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: FAMU -6.5 (-110) | PV +6.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: FAMU -275 | PV +225

  • Total: 145.5 (-110)

FAMU’s -6.5 spread reflects their 34-point January rout despite PV’s February upset, with a 21-6 ATS record (2-2 ATS as 6.5+ favorites) trouncing PV’s 13-17 ATS (5-6 as 6.5+ underdogs). The Rattlers’ 71.9 PPG offense meets PV’s 85.7 PPG defense (363rd nationally), while the Panthers’ 74.8 PPG tests FAMU’s 75.1 PPG allowed. The -275 moneyline gives FAMU a 73.3% win probability, with PV’s +225 lifted by their home win but dulled by a 1-9 run. The 145.5 total aligns with their 146.7 PPG combined average, with head-to-heads at 148 and 139.

Best Bet: Over 145.5 (-110)
I’m riding the over 145.5 wave here—PV’s leaky defense (85.7 PPG allowed, 363rd nationally) and FAMU’s three-point juice (7.8 makes) should push this past 145.5, mirroring their 148 and 139-point clashes. FAMU -6.5 has legs with their ATS dominance, but I’m betting on a scoring spree over a tight spread in this neutral-site showdown. PV’s slump might limit them, but the points should still flow.

WAC Tournament - 1st Round Preview

#9 Utah Tech vs. #8 Southern Utah - 4:30 PM ET (ESPN+)

In this Western Athletic Conference (WAC) Tournament first-round matchup, the #9 seed Utah Tech Trailblazers (6-25, 2-14 WAC) face the #8 seed Southern Utah Thunderbirds (12-18, 4-12 WAC) at Burns Arena in St. George, Utah. Southern Utah swept their regular-season series, winning 80-62 at home January 4, 2025, and 74-65 on the road February 27, 2025. The Trailblazers, led by Noa Gonsalves (14.0 PPG, 35.4% 3PT) and Beon Riley (13.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG), average 70.2 PPG with 7.4 threes per game (33.0% 3PT), while Southern Utah’s Jamir Simpson (16.2 PPG, 33.9% 3PT) and Dominique Ford (11.5 PPG) power a 69.9 PPG offense with 6.8 threes per game (33.8% 3PT). Utah Tech’s 14-14 ATS record edges Southern Utah’s 11-16 ATS, with the Trailblazers on a 14-game skid and the Thunderbirds snapping a 4-game slide.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Utah Tech -5.5 (-110) | Southern Utah +5.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Utah Tech -225 | Southern Utah +185

  • Total: 144.5 (-110)

Utah Tech’s -5.5 spread defies Southern Utah’s 2-0 sweep (13.5-point average margin), with a 14-14 ATS record (0-2 ATS as 5.5+ favorites) just topping Southern Utah’s 11-16 ATS (6-7 as 5.5+ underdogs). The Trailblazers’ 70.2 PPG offense meets Southern Utah’s 74.6 PPG defense, while the Thunderbirds’ 69.9 PPG tests Utah Tech’s 76.4 PPG allowed (300th nationally). The -225 moneyline gives Utah Tech a 69.7% win probability despite their skid, with Southern Utah’s +185 buoyed by their head-to-head wins. The 144.5 total exceeds their 140.1 PPG combined average, with head-to-heads at 142 and 139.

Best Bet: Southern Utah +5.5 (-110)
Southern Utah’s 2-0 sweep, including a 9-point road win, and Utah Tech’s 14-game nosedive make the Thunderbirds a solid bet to keep this within 5. Home court might lift Utah Tech, but Southern Utah’s matchup edge shines through. The under 144.5 teases with their 142 and 139-point games, but I’m betting on the underdog covering over a total flip in this tourney opener.

WCC Tournament - Final Preview

#1 Gonzaga vs. #2 Saint Mary’s - 9:00 PM ET (ESPN)

In this West Coast Conference (WCC) Tournament Championship matchup, the #1 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-6, 14-2 WCC) face the #2 seed Saint Mary’s Gaels (24-7, 15-1 WCC) at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Saint Mary’s swept their regular-season series, winning 62-58 at home February 1, 2025, and 66-58 at Gonzaga February 22, 2025. The Bulldogs, led by Graham Ike (16.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG) and Ryan Nembhard (12.8 PPG, 9.0 APG), average 85.0 PPG (7th nationally) with 8.0 threes per game (37.8% 3PT), while Saint Mary’s Aidan Mahaney (13.8 PPG) and Augustas Marciulionis (12.3 PPG, 5.1 APG) power a 72.2 PPG offense backed by a top-5 defense (59.2 PPG allowed). Gonzaga’s 15-15-1 ATS record trails Saint Mary’s 16-14 ATS, with the Bulldogs on a 9-game win streak and the Gaels riding 2 straight tourney wins.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: Gonzaga -3.5 (-110) | SMC +3.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Gonzaga -165 | SMC +140

  • Total: 138.5 (-110)

Gonzaga’s -3.5 spread contrasts Saint Mary’s 2-0 sweep (6-point average margin), with a 15-15-1 ATS record (3-5 ATS as 3.5+ favorites) lagging behind SMC’s 16-14 ATS (5-2 as 3.5+ underdogs). The Bulldogs’ 85.0 PPG offense faces SMC’s 59.2 PPG defense (2nd nationally), while the Gaels’ 72.2 PPG tests Gonzaga’s 69.2 PPG allowed. The -165 moneyline gives Gonzaga a 62.3% win probability, with SMC’s +140 lifted by their 4 straight wins over Gonzaga. The 138.5 total sits below their 157.2 PPG combined average, with head-to-heads at 120 and 124.

Best Bet: Under 138.5 (-110)
The under 138.5 is my lock tonight—Saint Mary’s suffocating defense (59.2 PPG allowed) and glacial pace (356th) have held Gonzaga to 58 points twice, and their 5-0 under streak in matchups seals it. The Bulldogs might push with their 9-game roll, but SMC’s grind and tourney wear should cap this below 138.5. SMC +3.5 has juice with their head-to-head run, but I’m betting on a stingy score over a tight spread in this title clash.