Thursday, 03/06/25

Today's Conference Tournament Games

March 06, 2025

Table of Contents

Atlantic Sun Tournament - Semifinal Preview

1.) #4 Jacksonville vs. #2 North Alabama - 7:00 PM ET

Tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 4 seed Jacksonville Dolphins (19-12, 13-6 ASUN) clash with the No. 2 seed North Alabama Lions (23-9, 15-4 ASUN) at Flowers Hall in Florence, AL. Jacksonville swept the season series with a 4-point win (64-60, Jan. 16) and another 4-point squeaker (67-63, Feb. 10), powered by Robert McCray’s clutch scoring (18.5 PPG). North Alabama, riding Jacari Lane’s electric 31-point outburst in Monday’s 90-64 rout of Austin Peay, flexed their rebounding chops (38.1 RPG, top-40 nationally), while Jacksonville rallied past Eastern Kentucky 78-67 behind McCray’s 26-point, 10-rebound double-double.

Betting Insights: North Alabama opens at -5.5 (-110), a sharp line with their 14-1 home record and 9-2 ATS tear in their last 11, but Jacksonville’s 2-0 head-to-head edge and 11-7 ATS as underdogs keep it tight. Monday’s quarterfinals saw North Alabama bury Austin Peay with 54% shooting, while Jacksonville’s second-half surge (61% FG) flipped EKU. The over/under at 143.5 looks live—prior games hit 124 and 130, but North Alabama’s 9/11 overs and Jacksonville’s 7/10 lately signal juice.

Best Bet: Over 143.5 (-110). North Alabama’s offensive buzz from Monday and Jacksonville’s resilience—seen in their EKU comeback—could torch the nets. Safer than a 5.5-point spread with Jacksonville owning the Lions this season.

2.) #6 Queens vs. #1 Lipscomb - 8:00 PM ET

Tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 6 seed Queens Royals (19-13, 12-7 ASUN) take on the No. 1 seed Lipscomb Bisons (23-9, 15-4 ASUN) in an ASUN Tournament semifinal showdown at Allen Arena in Nashville, TN. The teams split the season series—Queens nabbed a 92-83 home win on January 4, but Lipscomb roared back with a 94-81 road victory on February 8, outscoring the Royals by 8 points across the two games. Lipscomb’s Gyasi Powell (15.3 PPG) has torched Queens’ porous defense (76.8 PPG allowed), while the Royals lean on Leo Colimerio (15.3 PPG, 21 vs. FGCU Monday) to fuel their Cinderella bid after a 71-65 upset over FGCU.

Betting Insights: Lipscomb opens at -10.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -520, while Queens sits at +390. The over/under is 147.5. The Bisons’ 11-2 home record and co-ASUN title back the hefty spread, though their 7-10 ATS mark as favorites tempers confidence. Queens’ 15-13 ATS clip shines brighter after Monday’s cover, and their 8-5 ATS as a 7+ point underdog screams value. Both teams love to run—January’s clash hit 175, February’s 163—and their over trends (Queens 8/10, Lipscomb 7/10) flirt with this line.

Best Bet: Over 147.5 (-110). Expect a track meet as Lipscomb’s offense hums and Queens fights to stay alive after Monday’s grinder. Lipscomb should roll, but the over’s the sharper play with these leaky defenses.

Horizon League Tournament - Quarterfinal Preview

1.) #5 Purdue Fort-Wayne vs. #4 Youngstown State - 7:00 PM ET

Tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 5 seed Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons (19-12, 12-8 Horizon) duke it out with the No. 4 seed Youngstown State Penguins (19-12, 13-7 Horizon) in a Horizon League Tournament quarterfinal slugfest at Beeghly Center in Youngstown, OH. The teams split the season series—Purdue Fort Wayne edged out an 82-78 home win on February 4, but Youngstown State roared back with a 93-71 smackdown at home on February 12, outscoring the Mastodons by 6 points across the two. Youngstown’s EJ Farmer (15.1 PPG) has diced up Purdue Fort Wayne’s soft D (74.7 PPG allowed), while the Mastodons’ Jalen Jackson (19.2 PPG) lit up the Penguins for 25 in their win, primed to spark an upset on the road.

Betting Insights: Youngstown State opens at -1.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -130, while Purdue Fort Wayne hangs at +110. The over/under is 154.5. The Penguins’ 11-5 ATS mark at home and 9-2 run in their last 11 look solid, but a razor-thin -1.5 spread tightens the play—Purdue Fort Wayne’s 2-0 ATS vs. Youngstown this year and 8-6 as underdogs keep it close. Youngstown’s February 22-point rout screams dominance, yet the Mastodons’ road win shows they can scrap. Points have piled up—games hit 160 and 164 this season—and Purdue Fort Wayne’s 13/24 overs meet Youngstown’s 8/10 lately, juicing the total.

Best Bet: Purdue Fort Wayne +1.5 (-110). Youngstown’s home edge (14-1) and that February blowout tempt, but -1.5 feels too skimpy against a Mastodons squad that’s split the series and thrives as dogs (8-6 ATS). Jackson’s scoring punch (25 in the win) and Youngstown’s late-season stumbles (lost 2 of last 3) tilt this to a nail-biter—Purdue Fort Wayne keeps it within a bucket or steals it outright.

2.) #6 Oakland vs. #3 Milwaukee - 8:00 PM ET

Tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 6 seed Oakland Golden Grizzlies (15-17, 11-9 Horizon) lock horns with the No. 3 seed Milwaukee Panthers (21-10, 14-6 Horizon) in a Horizon League Tournament quarterfinal showdown at UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena in Milwaukee, WI. Oakland swept the season series, snagging an 88-78 road win on January 18 and a 91-87 home thriller on February 15, outscoring the Panthers by 7 points per game. Milwaukee’s Themus Fulks (14.4 PPG) steers their attack, while Oakland’s Allen David Mukeba Jr. (14.3 PPG) dropped 15 in Tuesday’s 96-72 smackdown of Green Bay, bringing heat into this revenge spot.

Betting Insights: Milwaukee opens at -6.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -275, while Oakland sits at +225. The over/under is 144.5. The Panthers’ 7-6 ATS mark at home and 20-11 record juice the spread, but Oakland’s 2-0 ATS vs. Milwaukee this year and 6-3 as 5.5+ underdogs keep it spicy. Milwaukee’s 9-11 ATS in conference play wobbles against Oakland’s 9-12, and the Panthers’ bye contrasts with Oakland’s Tuesday blowout momentum. Points have stacked up—games hit 166 and 178 this season—and Oakland’s 10/11 overs meet Milwaukee’s 6/10 lately, teasing the total.

Best Bet: Oakland +6.5 (-110). Milwaukee’s home edge and rest tempt, but -6.5 is a stretch against an Oakland squad that’s owned them twice—88-78 right here included. Mukeba’s groove (15 points Tuesday) and the Grizzlies’ 6-4 run in their last 10 trump Milwaukee’s shaky ATS form. This stays close; Oakland hangs within 6 or swipes it outright again.

3.) #8 Wright State vs. #1 Robert Morris - 8:00 PM ET

Tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 8 seed Wright State Raiders (15-17, 8-12 Horizon) scrap with the No. 1 seed Robert Morris Colonials (23-8, 15-5 Horizon) in a Horizon League Tournament quarterfinal brawl at UPMC Events Center in Pittsburgh, PA. The teams split the season series—Robert Morris nabbed a 75-72 home win on January 12, but Wright State struck back with a 66-64 upset on February 13 at home, keeping the Colonials to a 2-point edge across the two. Robert Morris’ Alvaro Folgueiras (14.3 PPG, 9.3 RPG) has owned the glass, while Wright State’s Jack Doumbia (15.5 PPG) dropped 23 in Tuesday’s 98-85 thumping of IU Indy, riding a hot streak into this top-seed showdown.

Betting Insights: Robert Morris opens at -6.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -290, while Wright State hangs at +235. The over/under is 150.5. The Colonials’ 9-1 run in their last 10 and 15-5 Horizon mark juice the spread, but Wright State’s 2-0 ATS vs. Robert Morris this year and 7-5 as 7+ point underdogs keep it close. Robert Morris’ 11-8 ATS in conference play outshines Wright State’s 9-12, and their home edge (second in offensive rebounds league-wide) looms large. Tuesday’s blowout (Wright State covered +13) shows Raider fight, but prior games totaled 147 and 130—Wright State’s 8/10 overs lately clash with Robert Morris’ 6/10, teasing the line.

Best Bet: Robert Morris -6.5 (-110). Wright State’s split-series grit and Doumbia’s fire tempt, but -6.5 fits a Colonials squad that’s 9-1 in their last 10 and feasts at home. Folgueiras’ rebounding edge and Robert Morris’ top-seed hunger should bury a Raiders team that’s 3-10 on the road. The 66-64 upset was cute, but this one’s a 10-point Colonial win—spread clears.

4.) #7 Northern Kentucky vs. #2 Cleveland State - 8:00 PM ET

Tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 7 seed Northern Kentucky Norse (17-15, 11-9 Horizon) scrap with the No. 2 seed Cleveland State Vikings (20-11, 14-6 Horizon) in a Horizon League Tournament quarterfinal brawl at Wolstein Center in Cleveland, OH. The teams split the season series—NKU snagged an 82-70 home win on January 23, but Cleveland State clawed back with a 75-73 thriller at home on February 15, outscoring the Norse by 4 points across the two. Cleveland’s Dylan Arnett (11.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG) has owned the paint, while NKU’s Marques Warrick (19.3 PPG) torched Detroit Mercy for 23 in Tuesday’s 99-75 rout, riding a five-game win streak into this showdown.

Betting Insights: Cleveland State opens at -4.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -190, while Northern Kentucky sits at +160. The over/under is 139.5. The Vikings’ 8-5 ATS mark at home and 14-6 Horizon record juice the spread, but NKU’s 2-0 ATS vs. Cleveland this year and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 scream fight. Cleveland’s 11-8 ATS in conference play edges NKU’s 10-11, yet the Norse’s Tuesday blowout (24-point cover) shows fire. Points have been modest lately—games hit 152 and 148 this season—but Cleveland’s 6/10 overs meet NKU’s 5/10, with Tuesday’s 174 teasing the total.

Best Bet: Over 139.5 (-110). Cleveland’s home edge tempts, but the real gold’s in the points—NKU’s 99 Tuesday and prior 152/148 totals vs. Cleveland clear 139.5 with room to spare. Warrick’s hot streak (19.3 PPG) and Cleveland’s paint game (34.6 PPG) exploit leaky Ds (71.8 and 73.6 PPG allowed). The Norse’s 5-0 run says close, but this hits 145+—take the over and cash.

Missouri Valley Tournament - 1st Round Preview

1.) #9 Indiana State vs. #8 Southern Illinois - 1:00 PM ET

Today at 1:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 9 seed Indiana State Sycamores (14-17, 8-12 MVC) tangle with the No. 8 seed Southern Illinois Salukis (13-18, 8-12 MVC) in an MVC Tournament first-round elimination scrap at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO. Indiana State won their only regular-season meeting this year, a 95-77 blowout at home on March 2, outscoring the Salukis by 18 points. Southern Illinois’ Ali Abdou Dibba (17.0 PPG) has been a spark, while Indiana State’s Samage Teel (17.0 PPG) dropped 20 in that win, carrying momentum into this Arch Madness clash.

Betting Insights: Southern Illinois opens at -1.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -118, while Indiana State sits at +1.5 (-110) and -102. The over/under is 157.5. The Salukis’ 9-11 ATS in conference play and 1-5 ATS skid in their last six look shaky, though their 8-9-1 ATS as 1.5+ underdogs this year hints at fight. Indiana State’s 11-9 ATS in MVC games and 6-3 ATS in their last nine shine brighter, bolstered by their 18-point cover on March 2. Points popped in that game (172 total), with Southern’s 13/15 overs clashing with Indiana State’s 7/10 lately, juicing the total.

Best Bet: Indiana State +1.5 (-110). Southern Illinois’ -1.5 favorite status feels off—Indiana State’s 95-77 rout on March 2, led by Teel’s 20 points, and their 11-9 MVC ATS record outclass the Salukis’ 1-5 ATS slide. The Sycamores’ momentum and head-to-head edge make the +1.5 my honest best in this neutral-site toss-up.

2.) #12 Missouri State vs. #5 Illinois State - 3:30 PM ET

Today at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 12 seed Missouri State Bears (9-22, 2-18 MVC) square off with the No. 5 seed Illinois State Redbirds (18-13, 10-10 MVC) in an MVC Tournament first-round elimination clash at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO. Illinois State swept the season series, edging a 74-68 home win on January 18 and a 70-68 nail-biter on February 22 on the road, outscoring the Bears by 8 points across the two. Illinois State’s Chase Walker (15.0 PPG) has powered their paint game, while Missouri State’s Dez White (14.3 PPG) dropped 24 in their first clash, aiming to spark an upset in this Arch Madness opener.

Betting Insights: Illinois State opens at -5.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -225, while Missouri State sits at +184. The over/under is 131.5. The Redbirds’ 9-11 ATS in conference play leans shaky, but their 7-2 ATS in their last nine and 2-0 ATS vs. Missouri State this year juice the spread. Missouri State’s 10-10 ATS in MVC games and 8-5 ATS on the road tempt, though their 1-5 ATS skid in the last six flags risk. Points have been low—games hit 142 and 138 this season—but Missouri State’s 11/20 overs meet Illinois State’s 14/20, with recent trends teasing the total.

Best Bet: Illinois State -5.5 (-110). Missouri State’s scrappy losses (five of last six by 9 or less) and White’s flash tempt, but Illinois State’s 2-0 ATS sweep and 7-2 ATS run bury the Bears here. The Redbirds’ 9-11 ATS in conference outpaces Missouri State’s 1-5 ATS slide, and Walker’s edge in the paint turns this into a 72-65 grinder—Illinois State covers by 7+.

3.) #11 Evansville vs. #6 Murray State - 7:00 PM ET

Today at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 11 seed Evansville Purple Aces (11-20, 8-12 MVC) take on the No. 6 seed Murray State Racers (15-16, 9-11 MVC) in an MVC Tournament first-round elimination game at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO. Murray State swept the season series, winning 81-64 at home on January 25 and 63-59 on the road February 15, outscoring the Aces by 21 points across both games. Murray State’s Nick Ellington (12.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG) has dominated inside, while Evansville’s Cam Haffner (12.8 PPG) looks to spark an upset with his outside shooting in this Arch Madness opener.

Betting Insights: Murray State opens at -5.5 (-109), with a moneyline of -233, while Evansville sits at +5.5 (-109) and +188. The over/under is 129.5. The Racers’ 14-16 ATS record this season is shaky, but their 5-2 ATS in the last seven and 2-0 ATS vs. Evansville this year bolster the favorite. Evansville’s 15-15 ATS overall and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 show fight, though they’re 2-6 ATS as 5+ point underdogs. Scoring’s been modest—games hit 145 and 122 this season—with Murray State at 16/30 overs and Evansville at 13/30, and recent trends favoring unders (four of Murray State’s last five).

Best Bet: Under 129.5 (-110). Murray State -5.5 tempts with their 2-0 sweep and Evansville’s three-game skid (57 PPG), but the under remains my honest best bet. Evansville’s offense is ice-cold (62 PPG last three), and Murray State’s defense (70.3 PPG allowed) can stifle them. Season matchups averaged 134 points, but the tighter 129.5 line still fits: 70% of Evansville’s last 10 and 50% of Murray’s last 10 went under, and their combined pace leans low. Ellington grinds inside, Haffner’s shots rim out, and this finishes 66-60—Murray wins, but the total stays under 129.5 by 3.5.

4.) #11 Valparaiso vs. #6 UIC - 9:30 PM ET

Tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 11 seed Valparaiso Beacons (13-18, 6-14 MVC) face the No. 6 seed UIC Flames (18-13, 10-10 MVC) in an MVC Tournament first-round elimination game at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO. UIC swept the season series, winning 81-74 on the road January 18 and 77-73 at home March 2, outscoring Valparaiso by 11 points total. UIC’s Ahmad Henderson II (12.0 PPG) has been a clutch bench spark, while Valparaiso’s Cooper Schwieger (15.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG) aims to carry the Beacons’ upset bid in this Arch Madness nightcap.

Betting Insights: UIC opens at -3.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -176, while Valparaiso sits at +3.5 (-110) and +146. The over/under is 149.5. UIC’s 14-14 ATS record this season is middling, but their 9-4 ATS on the road and 2-0 ATS vs. Valparaiso this year favor the Flames. Valparaiso’s 14-15 ATS overall and 7-6 ATS on the road show some fight, though they’re 4-12 as underdogs of +146 or longer. Scoring’s been high—games hit 155 and 150 this season—with UIC at 16/28 overs and Valparaiso at 15/29, and recent trends (four of UIC’s last five overs) pushing the total up.

Best Bet: Over 149.5 (-110). UIC -3.5 tempts with their sweep and Valpo’s porous defense (75.2 PPG allowed), but the over’s the play. UIC’s offense (75.6 PPG) has roasted Valpo twice, averaging 79 points, and Schwieger’s scoring keeps it competitive. Both teams thrive on volume and free throws, and their season series points to another high-scoring clash—over clears in a 78-74 UIC win.

OVC Tournament - Quarterfinal Preview

1.) #8 UT Martin vs. #4 Little Rock - 7:00 PM ET

Tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 8 seed UT Martin Skyhawks (14-18, 9-11 OVC) face the No. 4 seed Little Rock Trojans (18-13, 12-8 OVC) in an OVC Tournament quarterfinal elimination game at the Ford Center in Evansville, IN. Little Rock swept the season series, winning 75-57 at home on January 2 and 81-73 on the road February 1, outscoring UT Martin by 26 points total. Yesterday, UT Martin punched their ticket to this matchup with a gritty 70-67 win over Tennessee Tech in the first round, led by Tarence Guinyard’s 18 points. Little Rock’s Johnathan Lawson (15.5 PPG) powers their offense, while UT Martin’s Josue Grullon (16.8 PPG, 3.5 3PM) aims to keep the Skyhawks alive in this OVC postseason battle.

Betting Insights: Little Rock opens at -5.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -225, while UT Martin sits at +5.5 (-110) and +184. The over/under is 132.5. Little Rock’s 16-14 ATS record edges UT Martin’s 14-15, with the Trojans going 2-0 ATS vs. the Skyhawks this year and 11-9 ATS in OVC play. UT Martin’s 9-4 ATS on the road and yesterday’s 1.5-point cover as favorites show resilience, though they’re 5-8 ATS as underdogs. Scoring’s been uneven—games hit 132 and 154 this season—with Little Rock at 13/30 overs and UT Martin at 11/31, and recent trends (four of Little Rock’s last five unders) leaning low.

Best Bet: Under 132.5 (-110). Little Rock’s -5.5 is tempting with their 2-0 sweep and 13-point average margin over UT Martin, but the under feels stronger. UT Martin’s 70-67 grind yesterday and Little Rock’s 69.2 PPG offense (302nd nationally) meet stingy defenses—Skyhawks allow 71.6 PPG, Trojans 66.6. Season games averaged 141, but this total’s tighter, and fatigue plus tournament pressure should cap scoring—Lawson and Grullon trade buckets, but it stays low.

2.) #6 Lindenwood vs. #3 Tennessee State - 9:30 PM ET

Tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 6 seed Lindenwood Lions (16-16, 10-10 OVC) take on the No. 3 seed Tennessee State Tigers (16-15, 12-8 OVC) in an OVC Tournament quarterfinal elimination game at the Ford Center in Evansville, IN. Tennessee State swept the season series, winning 75-60 at Lindenwood on January 13 and 84-76 at home on February 8, outscoring the Lions by 23 points total. Yesterday, Lindenwood advanced with a 73-65 upset over Morehead State in the first round, powered by Reggie Bass’s 23 points off the bench. Tennessee State’s Carlous Williams (12.8 PPG) leads a balanced attack, while Lindenwood’s Anias Futrell (11.5 PPG) aims to keep the Lions’ Cinderella run alive in this OVC postseason clash.

Betting Insights: Tennessee State opens at -4.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -210, while Lindenwood sits at +4.5 (-110) and +172. The over/under is 146.5. Tennessee State’s 15-14 ATS record this season tops Lindenwood’s 13-17, with the Tigers going 2-0 ATS vs. the Lions this year and 9-5 ATS in OVC play. Lindenwood’s 7-6 ATS as underdogs and yesterday’s 3.5-point cover as dogs show resilience, though they’re 4-11 ATS on neutral sites. Scoring’s been solid—games hit 135 and 160 this season—with Tennessee State at 17/29 overs and Lindenwood at 14/30, and recent trends (four of Tennessee State’s last five overs) supporting a higher total.

Best Bet: Tennessee State -4.5 (-110). Lindenwood’s 73-65 upset over Morehead State, driven by Bass’s 23 points and a 41-28 second-half push, proves they’ve got fight, but Tennessee State’s 2-0 sweep and rested roster take over. The Tigers’ 80.0 PPG and 8.2 3PM exploit Lindenwood’s 73.8 PPG allowed, and the Lions’ back-to-back games dull their edge against Tennessee State’s 43.5% FG. The 4.5-point line favors the Tigers’ depth and season dominance.

Patriot League Tournament - Quarterfinal Preview

1.) #8 Loyola Maryland vs. #1 Bucknell - 7:00 PM ET

Tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 8 seed Loyola Maryland Greyhounds (12-18, 7-12 Patriot) face the No. 1 seed Bucknell Bison (17-14, 13-5 Patriot) in a Patriot League Tournament quarterfinal elimination game at Sojka Pavilion in Lewisburg, PA. Bucknell swept the season series, winning 67-52 at home on January 31 and 68-46 on the road February 28, outscoring Loyola Maryland by 37 points total. On Tuesday, Loyola Maryland advanced with a 77-73 upset over Lehigh in the first round, led by Milos Ilic’s 18 points and nine rebounds. Bucknell’s Noah Williamson (17.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG) anchors their paint dominance, while Loyola Maryland’s Jacob Theodosiou (10.8 PPG, 1.7 SPG) aims to spark the Greyhounds’ upset bid in this postseason showdown.

Betting Insights: Bucknell opens at -7.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -375, while Loyola Maryland sits at +7.5 (-110) and +290. The over/under is 138.5. Bucknell’s 16-13 ATS record this season outshines Loyola Maryland’s 12-17, with the Bison going 2-0 ATS vs. the Greyhounds this year and 11-5 ATS in Patriot League play. Loyola Maryland’s 8-9 ATS as underdogs and Tuesday’s 8-point cover as 2-point dogs show some resilience, though they’re 4-12 straight-up on the road. Scoring’s been modest—games hit 119 and 114 this season—with Bucknell at 14/29 overs and Loyola Maryland at 15/29, and recent trends (four of Bucknell’s last five unders) suggest a lower total.

Best Bet: Bucknell -7.5 (-110). Loyola Maryland’s 77-73 win over Lehigh, driven by Ilic’s 18 points, keeps them feisty, but Bucknell’s 2-0 sweep and home edge (11-5 ATS) overpower here. The Bison’s 73.9 PPG and 34.0 paint points (2nd in Patriot) exploit Loyola’s 71.0 PPG allowed, and Williamson’s 64.0% FG over the last 10 games feasts on their 279th-ranked rebounding. Why not under 138.5? The season series averaged 116.5 (119 and 114), and Bucknell’s recent unders (four of five) tempt, but Loyola’s 77-point outburst Tuesday and Bucknell’s 73.9 PPG suggest enough scoring potential—especially if Bucknell pushes past 70—to risk the over. The spread’s safer: Bucknell’s 18.5-point average margin vs. Loyola and 7-3 record as 7+ point favorites this season lock in the cover over the total’s uncertainty.

2.) #7 Lafayette vs. #2 American - 7:00 PM ET

Tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 7 seed Lafayette Leopards (13-19, 7-11 Patriot) face the No. 2 seed American Eagles (19-12, 13-5 Patriot) in a Patriot League Tournament quarterfinal elimination game at Bender Arena in Washington, D.C. American won their lone meeting this season, 75-68, on January 29 on the road, and has taken two straight in the series after a 60-58 home win last year. On Tuesday, Lafayette advanced with a nail-biting 69-68 upset over Holy Cross in the first round, sparked by Alex Chaikin’s 17 points. American’s Matt Rogers (17.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG) drives their attack, while Lafayette’s Justin Vander Baan (12.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG) aims to keep the Leopards’ run alive in this postseason clash.

Betting Insights: American opens at -4.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -205, while Lafayette sits at +4.5 (-110) and +170. The over/under is 129.5. American’s 15-14 ATS record this season edges Lafayette’s 18-14, with the Eagles going 1-0 ATS vs. the Leopards this year and 9-6 ATS in Patriot League play. Lafayette’s 12-11 ATS as underdogs and Tuesday’s 2.5-point cover as favorites show resilience, though they’re 4-11 straight-up on the road. Scoring’s been moderate—the January game hit 143 points—with American at 15/29 overs and Lafayette at 18/32, but recent trends (four of American’s last five unders) lean low.

Best Bet: American -4.5 (-110). Lafayette’s 69-68 escape against Holy Cross, led by Chaikin’s 17 points, keeps them in the fight, but American’s home dominance (10-3 ATS at Bender) and 75-68 win earlier this season tip the scales. The Eagles’ 70.9 PPG at home and Rogers’ inside edge outmatch Lafayette’s 65.8 PPG road average and 2-8 skid vs. winning teams on the road.

3.) #5 Navy vs. #4 Boston University - 7:00 PM ET

Tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 5 seed Navy Midshipmen (14-17, 10-8 Patriot) face the No. 4 seed Boston University Terriers (16-15, 10-8 Patriot) in a Patriot League Tournament quarterfinal elimination game at Case Gym in Boston, MA. The season series split, with Navy winning 62-47 at home on January 23 and Boston University taking an 87-65 rout on February 5 on their home floor, outscoring Navy by 13 points total. Navy enters their first tournament game after a bye, coming off a 68-54 regular-season finale win over Loyola Maryland on March 2, led by Donovan Draper’s 14 points and 12 rebounds. Boston University’s Miles Brewster (10.8 PPG, 3.6 APG) fuels their offense, while Navy’s Austin Benigni (14.8 PPG) looks to ignite the Midshipmen in this postseason opener.

Betting Insights: Boston University opens at -1.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -130, while Navy sits at +1.5 (-110) and +110. The over/under is 129.5. Boston University’s 14-15-1 ATS record this season slightly trails Navy’s 15-14, with each team going 1-1 ATS in their head-to-head matchups and Boston at 8-8 ATS in Patriot play. Navy’s 11-11 ATS as underdogs and their 8-point cover as 2-point favorites Sunday show resilience, though they’re 5-10 straight-up on the road. Scoring’s been inconsistent—games hit 109 and 152 this season—with Boston University at 14/30 overs and Navy at 13/29, and recent trends (three of Navy’s last four unders) leaning low.

Best Bet: Navy +1.5 (-110). Boston University’s 87-65 home win in February and 8-2 ATS run in their last 10 at Case Gym give them a slight edge, but Navy’s three-game win streak, capped by a 68-54 rout of Loyola Maryland, makes them a live dog in their tournament debut. The Midshipmen’s 41.1% FG edges Boston’s 40.8%, and Draper’s rebounding keeps this close against a Terriers squad that’s 5-5 in their last 10.

4.) #6 Army vs. #3 Colgate - 7:00 PM ET

Tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 6 seed Army Black Knights (16-15, 10-8 Patriot) face the No. 3 seed Colgate Raiders (15-16, 10-8 Patriot) in a Patriot League Tournament quarterfinal elimination game at Cotterell Court in Hamilton, NY. Colgate swept the season series, winning 71-59 at Army on January 2 and 70-62 at home on January 29, outscoring the Black Knights by 20 points total. Army enters their tournament opener after a 89-67 loss to Lehigh in their regular-season finale on March 1, where Jalen Rucker scored 22 points in defeat. Colgate’s Nicolas Louis-Jacques (11.5 PPG, 2.0 3PM) powers their perimeter attack, while Army’s Ryan Curry (12.9 PPG, 4.3 APG) looks to ignite the Black Knights in this postseason debut.

Betting Insights: Colgate opens at -7.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -340, while Army sits at +7.5 (-110) and +270. The over/under is 138.5. Colgate’s 11-18 ATS record this season trails Army’s 15-14-1, with the Raiders going 2-0 ATS vs. the Black Knights this year and 8-10 ATS in Patriot play. Army’s 11-11 ATS as underdogs and their 8-point cover as 3-point underdogs against Lehigh on January 11 show resilience, though they’re 5-10 straight-up on the road. Scoring’s been modest—games hit 130 and 132 this season—with Colgate at 13/29 overs and Army at 16/30, and recent trends (three of Army’s last four unders) leaning low.

Best Bet: Colgate -7.5 (-110). Army’s 89-67 loss to Lehigh exposed defensive lapses, despite Rucker’s 22 points, while Colgate’s 2-0 sweep and home strength (8-2 ATS in their last 10 at Cotterell) give them the edge. The Raiders’ 46.7% FG tops Army’s 44.4%, and Louis-Jacques’ outside shooting exploits Army’s 228th-ranked defensive efficiency against a team coming off a blowout.

Summit League Tournament - Quarterfinal Preview

1.) #8 Kansas City vs. #1 Omaha - 7:00 PM ET

Tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET, the No. 8 seed Kansas City Roos (13-19, 4-12 Summit) face the No. 1 seed Omaha Mavericks (19-12, 13-3 Summit) in a Summit League Tournament quarterfinal elimination game at the Denny Sanford PREMIER Center in Sioux Falls, SD. Omaha swept the season series, winning 77-58 at home on January 23 and 78-66 on the road February 19, outscoring Kansas City by 31 points total. Yesterday, Kansas City advanced with a 73-56 win over Oral Roberts in the first round, led by Jamar Brown’s 24 points. Omaha’s Marquel Sutton (13.8 PPG) anchors their attack, while Kansas City’s Jayson Petty (11.5 PPG) aims to keep the Roos alive in this postseason clash.

Betting Insights: Omaha opens at -2.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -142, while Kansas City sits at +2.5 (-110) and +120. The over/under is 137.5. Omaha’s 16-13 ATS record this season tops Kansas City’s 13-17, with the Mavericks going 2-0 ATS vs. the Roos this year and 12-5 ATS in Summit play. Kansas City’s 10-11 ATS as underdogs and yesterday’s 8.5-point cover as 2-point favorites show fight, though they’re 2-12 straight-up in their last 14 road games. Scoring’s been moderate—games hit 135 and 144 this season—with Omaha at 15/29 overs and Kansas City at 15/30, but recent trends (four of Kansas City’s last five unders) lean low.

Best Bet: Omaha -2.5 (-110). Kansas City’s 73-56 win over Oral Roberts, sparked by Brown’s 24 points and a 43.8% FG night, gives them momentum, but Omaha’s 2-0 sweep and top-seed status shine through. The Mavericks’ 45.2% FG and Sutton’s scoring edge exploit Kansas City’s 42.8% defense, especially with the Roos playing back-to-back while Omaha rests.

2.) #7 Denver vs. #2 St. Thomas - 9:30 PM ET

Tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET (Summit League Network), the No. 7 seed Denver Pioneers (11-20, 5-11 Summit) face the No. 2 seed St. Thomas Tommies (22-9, 12-4 Summit) in a Summit League Tournament quarterfinal elimination game at the Denny Sanford PREMIER Center in Sioux Falls, SD. St. Thomas has dominated the season series, winning 74-62 at home on January 18 and 79-76 on the road February 8, outscoring Denver by 15 points total. Denver enters their tournament opener off an 81-70 upset over South Dakota State on March 1, led by DeAndre Craig’s 19 points. St. Thomas, meanwhile, stumbled in their regular-season finale, falling 65-59 to Kansas City on March 2, despite Miles Barnstable’s 15 points. Denver’s Isaiah Carr (11.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG) anchors their interior, while St. Thomas’ Drake Dobbs (13.8 PPG, 3.6 APG) aims to steer the Tommies in this postseason clash.

Betting Insights: St. Thomas opens at -9.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -450, while Denver sits at +9.5 (-110) and +340. The over/under is 143.5. St. Thomas’ 18-11 ATS record this season outpaces Denver’s 13-16, with the Tommies going 2-0 ATS vs. the Pioneers this year and 11-5 ATS in Summit play. Denver’s 9-12 ATS as underdogs and their 3-point cover as 6-point dogs Saturday show some grit, though they’re 4-13 straight-up on the road/neutral sites. Scoring’s been high—games hit 136 and 155 this season—with St. Thomas at 16/29 overs and Denver at 15/29, and recent trends (three of St. Thomas’ last four overs) leaning up.

Best Bet: Over 143.5 (-110). St. Thomas -9.5 tempts with their 2-0 sweep and 83.5 PPG (12th nationally), but the over stands out as my honest best. Denver’s 81-70 win over South Dakota State and St. Thomas’ 10.4 3PM (16th) fuel a high-scoring affair—season games averaged 145.5 (136 and 155), and Denver’s 77.5 PPG allowed can’t contain the Tommies’ offense, even after their 59-point dud. Both teams’ 50%+ over trends push this to a 78-68 St. Thomas win.

Sun Belt Conference Tournament - 3rd Round Preview

1.) #9 Georgia Southern vs. #8 Georgia State - 6:00 PM ET

Tonight at 6:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 9 seed Georgia Southern Eagles (17-15, 8-10 Sun Belt) face the No. 8 seed Georgia State Panthers (13-18, 8-10 Sun Belt) in a Sun Belt Tournament third-round elimination game at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, FL. The season series split, with Georgia State winning 82-78 in overtime at home on January 8 and Georgia Southern taking a 76-75 thriller in Statesboro on February 28, decided by a combined five points. Yesterday, Georgia Southern advanced with a 78-64 win over Southern Miss in the second round, led by Adante’ Holiman’s 19 points. Georgia State enters their tournament opener after a bye, coming off a 76-75 regular-season finale loss to the Eagles, with Cesare Edwards posting 16 points. Georgia Southern’s Bradley Douglas (12.8 PPG) fuels their attack, while Georgia State’s Zarique Nutter (13.9 PPG) aims to ignite the Panthers in this postseason rivalry clash.

Betting Insights: Georgia Southern opens at -2.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -142, while Georgia State sits at +2.5 (-110) and +120. The over/under is 150.5. Georgia Southern’s 15-15-1 ATS record edges Georgia State’s 15-15, with each team going 1-1 ATS in their head-to-head matchups this year and Georgia Southern at 9-10 ATS in Sun Belt play. Georgia State’s 11-11 ATS as underdogs and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Sun Belt games show resilience, while Georgia Southern’s 3-1-1 ATS in their last five boosts their case. Scoring’s been tight—games hit 160 and 151 this season—with Georgia Southern at 16/31 overs and Georgia State at 17/30, and recent trends (three of Georgia Southern’s last four overs) leaning up.

Best Bet: Over 150.5 (-110). Georgia Southern’s 78-64 win over Southern Miss showcased offensive spark, while Georgia State’s fresh legs after their bye match the Eagles’ pace. The season series averaged 155.5 points (160 and 151), and both teams’ defenses—Georgia Southern allows 76.2 PPG, Georgia State 78.5—leak enough to clear this total. Holiman and Nutter should keep the scoreboard ticking in this neutral-site rivalry battle.

2.) #10 Old Dominion vs. #7 Texas State - 8:30 PM ET

Tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 10 seed Old Dominion Monarchs (13-19, 8-10 Sun Belt) face the No. 7 seed Texas State Bobcats (16-15, 9-9 Sun Belt) in a Sun Belt Tournament third-round elimination game at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, FL. Texas State won their lone regular-season meeting 75-64 on February 5 in Norfolk, outscoring Old Dominion by 11 points. Yesterday, Old Dominion advanced with a 67-49 win over Louisiana in the second round, led by Sean Durugordon’s 21 points. Texas State enters their tournament opener after a bye, coming off a 102-93 double-overtime win over James Madison on February 28, powered by Tylan Pope’s 23 points. Old Dominion’s Robert Davis Jr. (15.5 PPG) drives their offense, while Texas State’s Kaden Gumbs (11.2 PPG, 4.1 APG) aims to spark the Bobcats in this postseason clash.

Betting Insights: Texas State opens at -6.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -260, while Old Dominion sits at +6.5 (-110) and +210. The over/under is 140.5. Texas State’s 14-15 ATS record slightly outpaces Old Dominion’s 11-20, with the Bobcats going 1-0 ATS vs. the Monarchs this year and 9-9 ATS in Sun Belt play. Old Dominion’s 8-17 ATS as underdogs improved with yesterday’s 14-point cover as 5-point dogs, though they’re 3-10 ATS on neutral sites. Scoring leans low—the February game hit 139 points—with Texas State at 16/30 overs and Old Dominion at 12/31, but recent trends (three of Texas State’s last four overs) suggest potential for more.

Best Bet: Under 140.5 (-110). Texas State’s jump to -6.5 reflects their 11-point win in February and rest advantage, but Old Dominion’s 67-49 lockdown of Louisiana yesterday—holding them to 35.2% FG—sets the tone. The Monarchs’ 68.5 PPG offense stalls against Texas State’s 73.6 PPG allowed, and both teams’ slow paces (Old Dominion 66.5, Texas State 66.0, per KenPom) keep this tight. Texas State wins, but the under’s my honest best—expect a 70-64 Bobcats victory.

WCC Tournament - 1st Round Preview

1.) #11 San Diego vs. #10 Pacific - 5:30 PM ET

Tonight at 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+), the No. 11 seed San Diego Toreros (5-26, 2-16 WCC) face the No. 10 seed Pacific Tigers (9-23, 4-14 WCC) in a West Coast Conference Tournament first-round elimination game at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV. Pacific won their most recent regular-season meeting 71-69 on February 6 in Stockton, but San Diego took the earlier matchup 75-65 on December 30 in San Diego, splitting the series with a two-point differential. San Diego snapped a 16-game losing streak with an 82-80 home win over Portland in their regular-season finale on March 1, led by Tony Duckett’s 18 points off the bench. Pacific, meanwhile, closed the regular season with a 97-66 home loss to Santa Clara on March 1, despite Lamar Washington’s 17 points. San Diego’s Kjay Bradley Jr. (14.5 PPG) powers their attack when healthy, while Pacific’s Elijah Fisher (15.9 PPG) aims to lead the Tigers in this postseason opener.

Betting Insights: Pacific opens at -1.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -130, while San Diego sits at +1.5 (-110) and +110. The over/under is 145.5. Pacific’s 14-16 ATS record this season edges San Diego’s 16-14, with the Tigers going 1-1 ATS vs. the Toreros this year and 8-10 ATS in WCC play. San Diego’s 12-11 ATS as underdogs and 5-1 ATS when allowing fewer than 69.3 points show resilience, though they’re 1-15 straight-up on neutral sites. Scoring’s been moderate—games hit 140 and 138 this season—with Pacific at 15/30 overs and San Diego at 14/29, but recent trends (four of Pacific’s last five unders) lean low.

Best Bet: Under 145.5 (-110). San Diego’s 82-80 win over Portland broke a skid, but their 69.6 PPG offense (293rd nationally) faces Pacific’s 75.6 PPG allowed. Pacific’s 97-66 loss to Santa Clara inflated their defensive average, yet their 69.3 PPG scoring (301st) struggles against San Diego’s 79.1 PPG allowed. The season series averaged 139 points, and both teams’ recent form—Pacific’s unders, San Diego’s grind—points to a tight, low-scoring battle in this neutral-site elimination game.