Sunday, 03/09/25

Today's Conference Tournament Games

March 09, 2025

Table of Contents

Atlantic Sun Tournament - Final Preview

1.) #2 North Alabama vs. #1 Lipscomb - 2:00 PM ET (ESPN2)

The No. 2 seed North Alabama Lions (24-9, 14-4 ASUN) face the No. 1 seed Lipscomb Bisons (24-9, 14-4 ASUN) in the ASUN Tournament championship game at Allen Arena in Nashville, TN, with an NCAA Tournament berth at stake. The teams split the regular-season series: North Alabama won 74-64 on January 23 at home, holding Lipscomb to 25% from three, while Lipscomb took a 75-63 victory on February 20 in Nashville, outscoring North Alabama by two points overall. The Lions advanced with a 77-66 win over No. 6 Jacksonville in the semifinals on March 7, led by Jacari Lane’s 20 points, while the Bisons outlasted No. 5 Stetson 88-85 in overtime, paced by Jacob Ognacevic’s 26 points. North Alabama’s Lane (17.4 PPG) drives their offense, while Lipscomb’s Ognacevic (20.3 PPG) powers the Bisons in this postseason finale.

Betting Insights: Lipscomb opens at -4.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -192, while North Alabama sits at +4.5 (-110) and +158. The over/under is 143.5. Lipscomb’s 14-15-1 ATS record trails North Alabama’s 18-11-1, with each team going 1-1 ATS in their head-to-head matchups—Lipscomb at 9-9 ATS and North Alabama at 11-7 ATS in ASUN play. North Alabama’s 12-8-1 ATS as underdogs and 6-0 ATS in their last six boost their case, while Lipscomb’s 12-11 ATS as favorites and 8-2 straight-up at home lean their way. Scoring’s been moderate—regular-season games hit 138 and 138, with semifinals at 143 and 173—Lipscomb at 16/32 overs and North Alabama at 15/31, with recent trends favoring overs (Lipscomb 5-2 in last seven).

Best Bet: North Alabama +4.5 (-110). Lipscomb’s -4.5 reflects their 88-85 OT win and home edge, but North Alabama’s 77-66 victory and Lane’s steady hand—plus a 6-0 ATS streak—keep this close. The Lions’ 46.4% FG and 35.1 RPG match Lipscomb’s 43.8% FG allowed, while North Alabama’s defensive grit (64 points allowed in January) counters Lipscomb’s offense—expect a 74-71 Lipscomb win, with North Alabama covering.

Big Sky Tournament - 2nd Round Preview

1.) #9 Weber State vs. #1 Northern Colorado - 7:30 PM ET (ESPN+)

The No. 9 seed Weber State Wildcats (12-21, 5-13 Big Sky) face the No. 1 seed Northern Colorado Bears (23-8, 15-3 Big Sky) in a Big Sky Conference Tournament first-round elimination game at Idaho Central Arena in Boise, ID. Northern Colorado has dominated this season’s series, winning 89-72 on January 2 in Greeley and 68-63 on March 3 in Ogden, outscoring Weber State by 22 points total. The Wildcats enter after a 5-13 Big Sky campaign, with their latest loss to Northern Colorado led by Blaise Threatt’s 29 points, while the Bears, fresh off a bye as regular-season co-champs, closed with a three-game win streak, paced by Jaron Rillie’s 24 points in that March 3 victory. Weber State’s Threatt (19.8 PPG) drives their attack, while Northern Colorado’s Rillie (15.5 PPG) powers the Bears in this postseason opener.

Betting Insights: Northern Colorado opens at -11.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -600, while Weber State sits at +11.5 (-110) and +400. The over/under is 147.5. Northern Colorado’s 19-11-1 ATS record outpaces Weber State’s 13-18, with the Bears going 2-0 ATS vs. the Wildcats this year and 12-6 ATS in Big Sky play. Weber State’s 11-13 ATS as underdogs and 4-11 ATS on the road/neutral sites show struggle, though they’re 4-6 ATS in their last 10. Scoring’s been moderate—regular-season games hit 161 and 131 points—with Northern Colorado at 19/31 overs and Weber State at 16/31, with recent Bears games trending under (three straight).

Best Bet: Northern Colorado -11.5 (-110). Weber State’s Threatt keeps them feisty, but Northern Colorado’s 2-0 sweep—including a 17-point blowout—and top-25 offense (81.7 PPG) overpower a Wildcats defense allowing 71.9 PPG. The Bears’ 51.3% FG (1st nationally) and Rillie’s playmaking outmatch Weber State’s 300th-ranked KenPom defense—expect a 79-66 Northern Colorado win, covering by 13.

2.) #7 Northern Arizona vs. #2 Montana - 10:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

The No. 7 seed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (18-14, 8-10 Big Sky) face the No. 2 seed Montana Grizzlies (22-9, 15-3 Big Sky) in a Big Sky Conference Tournament quarterfinal elimination game at Idaho Central Arena in Boise, ID. Montana swept the regular-season series, winning 78-77 on January 9 in Missoula and 84-73 on February 8 in Flagstaff, outscoring Northern Arizona by 12 points total. The Lumberjacks advanced with a 66-53 upset over No. 8 Eastern Washington in the first round yesterday, led by Trent McLaughlin’s 18 points, while Montana enters their tournament opener after a bye, coming off a 74-64 win over Northern Colorado on March 3, paced by Brandon Whitney’s 17 points. Northern Arizona’s McLaughlin (18.5 PPG) drives their attack, while Montana’s Whitney (15.8 PPG) powers the Grizzlies in this postseason showdown.

Betting Insights: Montana opens at -5.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -240, while Northern Arizona sits at +5.5 (-110) and +198. The over/under is 147.5. Montana’s 14-15 ATS record this season edges Northern Arizona’s 15-14, with the Grizzlies going 2-0 ATS vs. the Lumberjacks this year and 10-8 ATS in Big Sky play. Northern Arizona’s 11-11 ATS as underdogs and yesterday’s 13-point cover as 2.5-point dogs show grit, though they’re 4-6 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site games. Scoring’s been moderate—regular-season games hit 155 and 157, with yesterday’s 119 total for Northern Arizona—Montana at 15/30 overs and Northern Arizona at 15/30, with mixed recent trends (Northern Arizona under yesterday, Montana over last outing).

Best Bet: Montana -5.5 (-110). Northern Arizona’s 66-53 upset and McLaughlin’s scoring keep them alive, but Montana’s 2-0 sweep—including an 11-point road win—and rest advantage overpower a Lumberjacks team on short rest. The Grizzlies’ 47.2% FG and Whitney’s steady hand outclass Northern Arizona’s 73.7 PPG allowed—expect an 80-73 Montana win, covering by 7.

Big South Tournament - Final Preview

1.) #3 Winthrop vs. #1 High Point - 12:00 PM ET (ESPN2)

The No. 3 seed Winthrop Eagles (23-10, 11-5 Big South) face the No. 1 seed High Point Panthers (28-5, 14-2 Big South) in the Big South Conference Tournament championship game at Freedom Hall Civic Center in Johnson City, TN, with an NCAA Tournament berth on the line. High Point swept the regular-season series, winning 84-62 on January 25 at home and 88-66 on February 15 in Rock Hill, outscoring Winthrop by 44 points total. The Eagles advanced with an 86-67 rout of No. 2 UNC Asheville in the semifinals yesterday, led by Kelton Talford’s 22 points, while High Point edged No. 4 Radford 76-73, paced by Kezza Giffa’s 19 points. Winthrop’s Talford (15.9 PPG) drives their attack, while High Point’s Giffa (14.6 PPG) powers the Panthers in this postseason finale.

Betting Insights: High Point opens at -7.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -310, while Winthrop sits at +7.5 (-110) and +245. The over/under is 161.5. High Point’s 16-15-1 ATS record edges Winthrop’s 16-14, with the Panthers going 2-0 ATS vs. the Eagles this year—High Point at 10-6 ATS and Winthrop at 9-7 ATS in Big South play. Winthrop’s 10-10 ATS as underdogs and yesterday’s 19-point cover as 2.5-point dogs show resilience, while High Point’s 10-11 ATS as favorites and 6-1 ATS in their last seven lean their way. Scoring’s been high—regular-season games hit 146 and 154, with yesterday’s totals at 153 and 149—Winthrop at 18-12 overs (five straight) and High Point at 15-31, though High Point’s recent games trend lower (three of last four under).

Best Bet: High Point -7.5 (-110). Winthrop’s 86-67 blowout yesterday and Talford’s 54.2% FG inside keep them potent, but High Point’s 2-0 sweep by 22-point averages and Giffa’s clutch play (19 points vs. Radford) dominate. The Panthers’ 82.4 PPG (19th nationally) and 49.4% FG face Winthrop’s 73.2 PPG allowed. High Point’s series superiority holds firm.

CAA Tournament - Quarterfinal Preview

1.) #8 Drexel vs. #1 Towson - 12:00 PM ET (FloHoops)

The No. 8 seed Drexel Dragons (18-14, 9-9 CAA) face the No. 1 seed Towson Tigers (21-10, 16-2 CAA) in a CAA Tournament quarterfinal elimination game at CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C. These teams split their regular-season meetings this year: Towson won 93-82 in overtime on January 11 in Philadelphia, while Drexel took a tight 55-54 victory on February 1 in Towson. Drexel enters off a 91-74 thrashing of No. 9 Elon on March 8, led by Jason Drake’s 25 points and Kobe MaGee’s 24, shooting 50.8% from the field. Towson, the CAA regular-season champs, rested with a bye, last playing a 75-72 win over Hampton on March 1, paced by Tyler Tejada’s 16.8 PPG season average. Drexel’s MaGee (13.7 PPG) and Yame Butler (13.6 PPG) drive their attack, while Towson’s Tejada and Dylan Williamson (13.8 PPG) anchor the Tigers in this postseason showdown.

Betting Insights: Towson opens at -4.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -140, while Drexel sits at +4.5 (-110) and +120. The over/under is 122.5 (-110 both ways). Drexel’s 20-11 ATS record this season tops Towson’s 15-14-1, with the Dragons going 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Tigers, including covering +6.5 in the February loss, while Towson’s 8-8 ATS as favorites contrasts Drexel’s 12-11 ATS as underdogs and the Tigers’ 5-2 ATS with a rest advantage. Towson’s -140 implies a 58.3% win probability fitting their 16-2 CAA mark, but Drexel’s +120 tempts after their road upset and 91-point outburst, though -4.5 tests their 1-point prior margins. January’s 175-point OT game contrasts February’s 109-point slog, with Drexel at 15/31 overs, Towson at 13/30, and recent trends (Towson 3/5 unders) favoring a lower total against Drexel’s 66.2 PPG defense and Towson’s 65.9 PPG allowed.

Best Bet: Under 122.5 (-110). Towson’s elite defense (88.6 points allowed per 100 possessions) and Drexel’s grinding style (66.8 possessions) echo February’s 109-point duel, not January’s OT outlier. The Dragons’ 48.1% shooting vs. Elon fades against Towson’s 43.2% field goal defense, and slow paces keep this below 122.5. Drexel’s ATS edge and tight history make +4.5 solid, but the under’s my honest best with defensive chops and tournament stakes.

2.) #12 Delaware vs. #4 William & Mary - 2:30 PM ET (FloHoops)

The No. 12 seed Delaware Blue Hens (14-19, 5-13 CAA) face the No. 4 seed William & Mary Tribe (17-14, 11-7 CAA) in a CAA Tournament quarterfinal elimination game at CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C. Delaware won their only regular-season meeting this year, 74-64, on February 8 in Newark, outscoring the Tribe by 10 points behind John Camden’s 20 points. The Blue Hens enter red-hot, winning two straight tournament games—80-76 over Stony Brook on March 7 and 79-62 over Campbell on March 8—led by Niels Lane’s 24 points in the latter. William & Mary, after a bye, comes off a 70-68 loss to Northeastern on March 1, with Caleb Dorsey’s 20 points not enough to avoid a third straight defeat. Delaware’s Camden (16.6 PPG) powers their offense, while William & Mary’s Gabe Dorsey (13.4 PPG) leads the Tribe in this postseason clash.

Betting Insights: William & Mary opens at -3.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -275, while Delaware sits at +3.5 (-110) and +225. The over/under is 160.5 (-110 both ways). William & Mary’s 14-15 ATS record edges Delaware’s 13-17-1, with the Tribe at 9-9 ATS in CAA play and Delaware at 10-8 ATS in conference games, including 1-0 ATS vs. William & Mary this year. The Tribe are 5-4 ATS as favorites, while Delaware’s 11-15 ATS as underdogs includes a 5-3 ATS mark when getting 3.5+ points. William & Mary’s -275 implies a 73.3% win probability, fitting their seeding, but Delaware’s +225 tempts after their tournament surge and February win. The prior game hit 138 points, far under 160.5, with Delaware at 17/31 overs and William & Mary at 14/30, though Delaware’s recent 79.5 PPG average and the Tribe’s 45.7% shooting could push this higher.

Best Bet: Delaware +3.5 (-110). Delaware’s 10-point February win and two-game tournament tear—averaging 79.5 PPG—make +3.5 a steal against a Tribe team on a three-game skid with a leaky 75.6 PPG defense. Camden’s scoring and Delaware’s 5-3 ATS record at 3.5+ outweigh William & Mary’s rest edge. The 160.5 total’s 22 points above their prior meeting, and while Delaware’s offense is hot, the Tribe’s 66.7 pace keeps it in check—still, +3.5’s my honest best with momentum and head-to-head value.

3.) #5 Hampton vs. #2 UNC Wilmington - 6:00 PM ET (FloHoops)

The No. 5 seed Hampton Pirates (15-15, 7-11 CAA) take on the No. 2 seed UNC Wilmington Seahawks (22-10, 12-6 CAA) in a CAA Tournament quarterfinal elimination game at CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C. The teams split their regular-season series: UNC Wilmington won 83-62 at home on January 25 behind Khamari McGriff’s 19 points, while Hampton took the second meeting 83-70 on February 22 at home, led by George Beale’s 20 points and Wayne Bristol Jr.’s 6-for-8 three-point shooting. Hampton advanced with an 83-70 upset of No. 4 William & Mary on March 8, paced by Beale’s 20 points, while UNC Wilmington rested after a bye, last playing a 77-67 win over Delaware on February 27 with Donovan Newby’s 20 points. Hampton’s Beale (13.8 PPG) and Bristol Jr. (12.6 PPG) fuel their attack, while UNC Wilmington’s Newby (14.8 PPG) and McGriff (12.3 PPG) power the Seahawks in this postseason battle.

Betting Insights: UNC Wilmington opens at -8.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -275, while Hampton sits at +8.5 (-110) and +225. The over/under is 137.5 (-110 both ways). UNC Wilmington’s 16-14 ATS record edges Hampton’s 16-13, with the Seahawks at 9-8 ATS in CAA play and 1-1 ATS vs. Hampton this year (covering -11.5 in the win, failing -5.5 in the loss), while the Pirates are 12-10 ATS as underdogs and 8-5 ATS when getting 6.5+ points. UNC Wilmington’s -275 implies a 73.3% win probability, fitting their seeding, but Hampton’s +225 shines after their 13-point home win and recent upset. The prior games hit 145 and 153 points, with Hampton at 18/30 overs and UNC Wilmington at 17/31, yet the Seahawks’ 70.4 PPG defense and Hampton’s 66.5 pace suggest 137.5 is reachable but tight in tournament play.

Best Bet: Hampton +8.5 (-110). Hampton’s 83-70 win over UNC Wilmington on February 22—shooting 48.3% and 11-for-20 from three—shows they can compete with the Seahawks’ 80.0 PPG offense, especially with Beale and Bristol Jr. clicking. UNC Wilmington’s 21-point prior win is offset by their 1-1 head-to-head ATS record and Hampton’s 8-5 ATS mark as 6.5+ underdogs. The 137.5 total’s close—both games went over—but tournament stakes lean me toward the points. +8.5’s my honest best over -8.5 or the over, given Hampton’s momentum and value.

4.) #6 Monmouth vs. #3 Charleston - 8:30 PM ET (FloHoops)

The No. 6 seed Monmouth Hawks (13-19, 10-8 CAA) face the No. 3 seed Charleston Cougars (23-8, 13-5 CAA) in a CAA Tournament quarterfinal elimination game at CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C. The teams met once this season on January 11, with Monmouth winning 84-73 at home, outscoring Charleston by 11 points behind Abdi Bashir Jr.’s 22 points and Madison Durr’s 18. Monmouth enters off a 65-60 upset of No. 11 Hofstra on March 8, led by Jack Collins’s 18 points, while Charleston rested with a bye, last playing a 71-66 loss to Towson on March 1, paced by Ante Brzovic’s 20 points. Monmouth’s Jaret Valencia (13.2 PPG) drives their offense, while Charleston’s Brzovic (12.8 PPG) anchors the Cougars in this postseason showdown.

Betting Insights: Charleston opens at -8.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -375, while Monmouth sits at +8.5 (-110) and +300. The over/under is 146.5 (-110 both ways). Charleston’s 15-14-1 ATS record edges Monmouth’s 14-16, with the Cougars at 8-8 ATS as favorites and 0-1 ATS vs. Monmouth this year (failing to cover -6 in the loss), while the Hawks are 10-12 ATS as underdogs but 6-4 ATS when getting 8.5+ points. Charleston’s -375 implies a 78.9% win probability, fitting their seeding, but Monmouth’s +300 shines after their 84-73 win and recent upset. That January game hit 157 points, with Monmouth at 15/31 overs and Charleston at 18/30, though the Cougars’ 73.2 PPG defense and Monmouth’s 66.8 pace suggest 146.5 might be high for tournament stakes.

Best Bet: Monmouth +8.5 (-110). Monmouth’s 84-73 victory over Charleston in January—shooting 47.5% and outrebounding the Cougars 37-31—proves they can compete, especially with Bashir Jr. and Durr heating up, and their 6-4 ATS record as 8.5+ underdogs and upset of Hofstra make +8.5 my honest best over -8.5 or the over.

Missouri Valley Tournament - Final Preview

1.) #2 Bradley vs. #1 Drake - 2:10 PM ET (CBS Sports Network)

The No. 2 seed Bradley Braves (26-7, 15-5 MVC) face the No. 1 seed Drake Bulldogs (29-3, 17-3 MVC) in the MVC Tournament Championship game at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. The teams split their regular-season series: Drake won 64-57 on January 8 at home, led by Tavion Banks’s 19 points off the bench, while Bradley took a 61-59 thriller on February 16 in Des Moines, sealed by Darius Hannah’s game-winning dunk with 10 seconds left. Bradley enters off a 70-58 rout of No. 3 Belmont on March 8, paced by Duke Deen’s 18 points, while Drake advanced with a 77-72 win over No. 4 Southern Illinois on March 8, driven by Bennett Stirtz’s 21 points. Bradley’s Deen (14.3 PPG) and Hannah (11.7 PPG) power their attack, while Drake’s Tucker DeVries (21.7 PPG) and Stirtz (12.8 PPG) lead the Bulldogs in this title clash.

Betting Insights: Drake opens at -3.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -140, while Bradley sits at +3.5 (-110) and +120. The over/under is 119.5 (-110 both ways). Bradley’s 17-15-1 ATS record edges Drake’s 15-15, with the Braves at 3-1 ATS in their last four vs. Drake, though the Bulldogs covered -5.5 in January and missed -1.5 in February. Drake’s 8-8 ATS as favorites contrasts Bradley’s 8-6 ATS as underdogs, with the Braves 5-3 ATS when getting 3.5+ points. Drake’s -140 implies a 58.3% win probability, fitting their top seed, but Bradley’s +120 tempts after their February road win. The prior games hit 121 and 120 points, with Bradley at 19/33 overs and Drake at 13/31, though recent tournament unders (Bradley 2/2, Drake 1/2) and stingy defenses (Bradley 67.7 PPG allowed, Drake 70.9 PPG) hover near 119.5.

Best Bet: Under 119.5 (-110). Bradley’s 45.8% field goal defense and Drake’s 59.2 PPG allowed (3rd nationally) anchor low-scoring battles—both prior games (121, 120 points) barely topped 119.5 with slow paces (Bradley 66.8, Drake 65.2 possessions)—and tournament stakes plus recent unders (Bradley 2/2) make the under my honest best over Drake -3.5 or Bradley’s points.

Patriot League Tournament - Semifinal Preview

1.) #5 Navy vs. #1 Bucknell - 12:00 PM ET

The No. 5 seed Navy Midshipmen (14-18, 10-8 Patriot) face the No. 1 seed Bucknell Bison (18-14, 13-5 Patriot) in a Patriot League Tournament Semifinal elimination game at Sojka Pavilion in Lewisburg, Pennsylvania. Bucknell swept the regular-season series, winning 73-69 on January 18 in Lewisburg behind Josh Bascoe’s 23 points, and 85-75 on February 1 in Annapolis, led by Noah Williamson’s 25 points. Navy enters on a four-game win streak, including an 86-78 victory over No. 4 Boston U on March 6, paced by Austin Benigni’s 30 points. Bucknell advanced with a 76-72 overtime win over No. 9 Loyola MD on March 6, driven by Williamson’s 21 points and 10 rebounds. Navy’s Benigni (18.8 PPG) powers their offense, while Bucknell’s Williamson (17.4 PPG) anchors the Bison in this postseason clash.

Betting Insights: Bucknell opens at -5.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -250, while Navy sits at +5.5 (-110) and +210. The over/under is 140.5 (-110 both ways). Bucknell’s 17-13 ATS record edges Navy’s 15-15-1, with the Bison 2-0 ATS vs. Navy this year (covering -2.5 and -3) and 8-6 ATS at home, while Navy is 8-6 ATS as underdogs and 5-3 ATS when getting 5.5+ points. Bucknell’s -250 implies a 71.4% win probability, fitting their sweep and 12 straight home wins vs. Patriot foes, but Navy’s +210 tempts with their hot streak. The prior games hit 142 and 160 points, with Navy at 19/31 overs and Bucknell at 15/31, though recent trends (Navy 3/5 overs, Bucknell 2/5 unders) and tight defenses (Navy 70.1 PPG allowed, Bucknell 67.9 PPG) test 140.5.

Best Bet: Navy +5.5 (-110). Navy’s four-game surge—averaging 82.5 PPG and shooting 47.9%—and Benigni’s scoring punch keep them within 5.5 of a Bucknell team that needed overtime to beat Loyola MD, despite the Bison’s sweep and home dominance, making +5.5 my honest best over -5.5 or the over.

2.) #3 Colgate vs. #2 American - 2:00 PM ET

The No. 3 seed Colgate Raiders (14-18, 10-8 Patriot) face the No. 2 seed American Eagles (20-12, 13-5 Patriot) in a Patriot League Tournament Semifinal elimination game at Bender Arena in Washington, D.C. The teams split their regular-season series: American won 67-59 on March 1 at Colgate, led by Matt Rogers’s 21 points, while Colgate took a 79-71 victory on January 15 at home, paced by Jeff Woodward’s 19 points. Colgate enters off an 84-55 rout of No. 6 Army on March 6, with Jalen Cox dropping 20 points, while American survived a 71-69 scare against No. 7 Lafayette on March 6, sparked by Greg Jones’s 17 points off the bench. Colgate’s Woodward (14.9 PPG) powers their offense, while American’s Rogers (17.2 PPG) anchors the Eagles in this title-game showdown.

Betting Insights: American opens at -1.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -140, while Colgate sits at +1.5 (-110) and +120. The over/under is 137.5 (-110 both ways). American’s 16-14 ATS record edges Colgate’s 15-16, with the Eagles 1-1 ATS vs. Colgate this year (covering -2 in the win, missing -3.5 in the loss) and 8-6 ATS at home, while the Raiders are 8-7 ATS as underdogs and 3-2 ATS when getting 1.5+ points. American’s -140 implies a 58.3% win probability, fitting their co-champ status, but Colgate’s +120 tempts after their blowout and January win. The prior games hit 150 and 126 points, with Colgate at 16/31 overs and American at 15/30, though recent unders (Colgate 2/5, American 3/5) and defenses (Colgate 73.1 PPG allowed, American 70.8 PPG) make 137.5 a coin flip.

Best Bet: Colgate +1.5 (-110). Colgate’s 84-55 dismantling of Army and their 79-71 win over American in January—shooting 50% and dominating the boards—prove they can hang, with Woodward and Cox keeping this within a point against an Eagles team that barely edged Lafayette, making +1.5 my honest best over -1.5 or the over.

SoCon Tournament - Semifinal Preview

1.) #2 Furman vs. #1 Chattanooga - 4:00 PM ET (ESPNU)

The No. 2 seed Furman Paladins (24-8, 11-7 SoCon) face the No. 1 seed Chattanooga Mocs (24-8, 15-3 SoCon) in the SoCon Tournament Semifinal game at Harrah’s Cherokee Center in Asheville, North Carolina. Chattanooga swept the regular-season series, winning 76-68 on January 15 at Furman and 82-72 on February 15 at home, both led by Honor Huff (20 and 18 points) and Trey Bonham (15 and 22 points). Furman enters off an 84-73 upset of No. 3 Samford on March 8, paced by Alex Williams’s 22 points and 47.1% team shooting, while Chattanooga advanced with a 79-67 rout of No. 5 Wofford on March 8, driven by Huff’s 18 points and 9-for-17 from three. Furman’s Williams (13.2 PPG) leads their offense, while Chattanooga’s Huff (16.5 PPG) and Bonham (15.3 PPG) steer the Mocs in this NCAA bid clash.

Betting Insights: Chattanooga opens at -2.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -140, while Furman sits at +2.5 (-110) and +120. The over/under opened at 145.5 and is now 144.5 (-110 both ways). Furman’s 18-13 ATS record edges Chattanooga’s 17-14, with the Mocs 2-0 ATS vs. Furman this year (-3.5, -4.5 covered). Chattanooga’s 8-7 ATS as favorites meets Furman’s 9-6 ATS as underdogs (4-2 at +2.5). Chattanooga’s -140 fits their 25-7 mark and sweep, while Furman’s +120 holds value after their upset and 38.8% three-point shooting (43rd nationally). Prior games hit 144 and 154 points, with Furman at 16/32 overs and Chattanooga at 18/31, but Furman’s 73.9 PPG defense and Chattanooga’s 72.8 PPG allowed hover near 144.5.

Best Bet: Under 144.5 (-110). The total opening at 145.5 and dipping to 144.5 aligns with Furman’s 73.9 PPG defense and Chattanooga’s 72.8 PPG allowed, matching their 144-point January game, while slow paces (Furman 65.8, Chattanooga 65.9 possessions) and Furman’s 1/2 tournament unders make the under my honest best over Chattanooga -2.5 or Furman +2.5’s razor-thin spread.

2.) #9 VMI vs. #8 Wofford - 6:30 PM ET (ESPNU)

The No. 9 seed VMI Keydets (15-18, 7-11 SoCon) face the No. 8 seed Wofford Terriers (17-15, 10-8 SoCon) in a Southern Conference Tournament Second Round elimination game at Harrah’s Cherokee Center in Asheville, North Carolina. Wofford won their lone regular-season meeting this year, 82-43, on February 19 in Lexington, outscoring VMI by 39 points behind Kyler Filewich’s 18 points and 11 rebounds. VMI enters off a 64-57 upset of No. 1 UNC Greensboro on March 8, led by Rickey Bradley Jr.’s 19 points, while Wofford fell 72-60 to East Tennessee State on March 1, paced by Corey Tripp’s 15 points. VMI’s Bradley Jr. (15.2 PPG) drives their offense, while Wofford’s Filewich (11.2 PPG) and Tripp (13.0 PPG) anchor the Terriers in this postseason battle.

Betting Insights: Wofford opens at -9.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -450, while VMI sits at +9.5 (-110) and +340. The over/under is 137.5 (-110 both ways). Wofford’s 15-15 ATS record trails VMI’s 18-11, with the Terriers 1-0 ATS vs. VMI this year (covered -5.5) and 6-4 ATS in their last 10, while VMI is 11-5 ATS as underdogs and 10-5 ATS at +9.5 or more. Wofford’s -450 implies an 81.8% win probability, fitting their 82-43 rout, but VMI’s +340 tempts after their upset and 7-3 ATS run in their last 10. Their prior game hit 125 points, with VMI at 15/29 overs and Wofford at 16/30, though Wofford’s 72.1 PPG defense and VMI’s 68.9 PPG offense lean under 137.5.

Best Bet: Under 137.5 (-110). Wofford’s 72.1 PPG defense and VMI’s 68.9 PPG offense, paired with their 125-point February meeting and slow paces (VMI 66.2, Wofford 65.2 possessions), suggest a low-scoring grind, especially after VMI’s 64-57 upset and Wofford’s 60-point last outing, making the under my honest best over Wofford -9.5’s big line or VMI’s upset chance.

Southland Tournament - 1st Round Preview

1.) #8 Houston Christian vs. #4 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - 6:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

The No. 8 seed Houston Christian Huskies (12-19, 9-11 Southland) face the No. 4 seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders (19-13, 12-8 Southland) in a Southland Conference Tournament First Round elimination game at the Legacy Center in Lake Charles, Louisiana. The teams split their regular-season series: HCU won 76-72 on January 20 at home, led by Julian Mackey’s 19 points, while TAMCC took a 68-62 victory on February 17 at home, paced by Jordan Roberts’s 16 points. Houston Christian enters off a 5-14 skid, last losing 70-62 to Southeastern Louisiana on March 1, with Mackey scoring 18 points, while TAMCC closed with a 74-66 win over Incarnate Word on March 1, driven by Roberts’s 20 points. Houston Christian’s Mackey (14.9 PPG) powers their offense, while TAMCC’s Roberts (14.8 PPG) anchors the Islanders in this postseason opener.

Betting Insights: TAMCC opens at -6.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -280, while HCU sits at +6.5 (-110) and +230. The over/under is 134.5 (-110 both ways). HCU’s 20-8 ATS record outshines TAMCC’s 16-11, with the teams 1-1 ATS this year (HCU +4 covered, TAMCC -7 covered). TAMCC’s 11-5 ATS as favorites contrasts HCU’s 13-6 ATS as underdogs (8-4 at +6.5 or more). TAMCC’s -280 fits their 19-13 record and 12-8 Southland mark, while HCU’s +230 tempts after their January upset. Prior games hit 148 and 130 points, with HCU at 15/28 overs and TAMCC at 15/27, but TAMCC’s 68.0 PPG defense and HCU’s 66.5 PPG offense align with 134.5.

Best Bet: Under 134.5 (-110). TAMCC’s 68.0 PPG defense and HCU’s 66.5 PPG offense, combined with their 130-point February game and slow paces (HCU 66.2, TAMCC 65.9 possessions), point to a 68-64 finish in this first-round grind, making the under my honest best over TAMCC -6.5’s reach or HCU’s upset potential.

2.) #7 Incarnate Word vs. #6 Southeastern Louisiana - 8:30 PM ET (ESPN+)

The No. 7 seed Incarnate Word Cardinals (16-15, 9-11 Southland) face the No. 6 seed Southeastern Louisiana Lions (18-13, 12-8 Southland) in a Southland Conference Tournament First Round elimination game at the Legacy Center in Lake Charles, Louisiana. SELA swept the regular-season series, winning 86-63 on January 25 at home, led by Sam Hines Jr.’s 22 points, and 71-66 on February 8 at Incarnate Word, paced by Hines Jr.’s 18 points. Incarnate Word enters off a 70-62 loss to Texas A&M-Commerce on March 1, with Julian Mackey scoring 18 points, while SELA closed with an 80-74 win over New Orleans on March 1, driven by Hines Jr.’s 20 points. Incarnate Word’s Mackey (15.6 PPG) powers their offense, while SELA’s Hines Jr. (16.4 PPG) anchors the Lions in this postseason opener.

Betting Insights: SELA opens at -3.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -165, while Incarnate Word sits at +3.5 (-110) and +140. The over/under is 138.5 (-110 both ways). Incarnate Word’s 16-13 ATS record edges SELA’s 15-14, with SELA 2-0 ATS vs. Incarnate Word this year (-6.5 and -2 covered). SELA’s 9-8 ATS as favorites contrasts Incarnate Word’s 10-7 ATS as underdogs (6-4 at +3.5 or more). SELA’s -165 fits their 18-13 record, 12-8 Southland mark, and sweep, while Incarnate Word’s +140 holds value after a split season. Prior games hit 149 and 137 points, with Incarnate Word at 16/30 overs and SELA at 15/29, but SELA’s 70.8 PPG defense and Incarnate Word’s 73.8 PPG offense hover near 138.5.

Best Bet: SELA -3.5 (-110). SELA’s sweep—23 points at home and 5 points on the road—plus Hines Jr.’s 16.4 PPG and their 70.8 PPG defense outweigh Incarnate Word’s 16-15 record and recent skid, with the Lions’ 2-0 ATS edge over the Cardinals sealing -3.5 as my honest best over the under’s defensive lean or Incarnate Word’s upset odds.

Summit League Tournament - Final Preview

1.) #3 Omaha vs. #1 St. Thomas - 9:00 PM ET (CBSSN)

The No. 3 seed Omaha Mavericks (21-12, 13-3 Summit) face the No. 1 seed St. Thomas Tommies (24-9, 12-4 Summit) in the Summit League Tournament Championship game at the Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. St. Thomas swept the regular-season series, winning 88-61 on February 29 at home behind Miles Barnstable’s 23 points, and 89-78 on January 24 at Omaha, led by Kendall Blue’s 19 points. Omaha enters off an 80-74 upset of No. 2 South Dakota on March 8, paced by Marquel Sutton’s 22 points, while St. Thomas advanced with a 74-62 rout of No. 5 North Dakota State on March 8, driven by Drake Dobbs’s 18 points. Omaha’s Sutton (16.4 PPG) powers their offense, while St. Thomas’s Barnstable (14.9 PPG) and Blue (11.7 PPG) lead the Tommies in this NCAA bid-deciding clash.

Betting Insights: St. Thomas opens at -3.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -165, while Omaha sits at +3.5 (-110) and +140. The over/under is 149.5 (-110 both ways). Omaha’s 17-13 ATS record edges St. Thomas’s 16-13, with the Tommies 2-0 ATS vs. Omaha this year (-7.5 and -3 covered). St. Thomas’s 8-6 ATS as favorites meets Omaha’s 10-5 ATS as underdogs (5-3 at +3.5 or more). St. Thomas’s -165 fits their 21-10 record and sweep, while Omaha’s +140 tempts after their upset and 8-2 run in their last 10. Prior games hit 149 and 167 points, with Omaha at 17/30 overs and St. Thomas at 16/29, but St. Thomas’s 70.8 PPG defense and Omaha’s 73.9 PPG allowed suggest 149.5 is high for a title game.

Best Bet: St. Thomas -3.5 (-110). St. Thomas’s 27-point and 11-point wins over Omaha this season, paired with their 56% effective field goal rate (best in Summit) and 70.8 PPG defense, outweigh Omaha’s upset momentum, as the Tommies’ sweep and Dobbs’s clutch play (11.9 PPG) cover -3.5 in a controlled championship win, making it my honest best over the over or Omaha’s points.

Sun Belt Conference Tournament - Semifinal Preview

1.) #4 Arkansas State vs. #1 South Alabama - 6:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

The No. 4 seed Arkansas State Red Wolves (23-9, 13-5 Sun Belt) face the No. 1 seed South Alabama Jaguars (21-10, 13-5 Sun Belt) in a Sun Belt Conference Tournament Semifinal elimination game at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida. South Alabama swept the regular-season series, winning 76-62 on January 9 at home behind Myles Corey’s 18 points, and 60-56 on February 19 at Arkansas State, led by Barry Dunning Jr.’s 14 points. Arkansas State enters off a 77-74 upset of No. 6 Marshall on March 8, paced by Taryn Todd’s 19 points, while South Alabama rested with a bye, last playing a 65-42 rout of Louisiana on February 28, driven by Elijah Ormiston’s 28 points. Arkansas State’s Todd (15.4 PPG) powers their offense, while South Alabama’s Dunning Jr. (14.7 PPG) anchors the Jaguars in this postseason showdown.

Betting Insights: Arkansas State opens at -4.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -192, while South Alabama sits at +4.5 (-108) and +160. The over/under is 135.5 (-110 both ways). Arkansas State’s 19-12-1 ATS record tops South Alabama’s 17-13, with the Jaguars 2-0 ATS vs. the Red Wolves this year (+1 and +7.5 covered as underdogs). Arkansas State’s 11-8 ATS as favorites contrasts South Alabama’s 9-7 ATS as underdogs (5-4 at +4.5 or more). Arkansas State’s -192 fits their 23-9 record and four-game win streak, while South Alabama’s +160 tempts with their sweep and 64.3 PPG defense (16th nationally). Prior games hit 138 and 116 points, with Arkansas State at 17/31 overs and South Alabama at 10/26, but South Alabama’s slow pace (63.4 possessions, 353rd) and Arkansas State’s 69.8 PPG defense test 135.5.

Best Bet: Under 135.5 (-110). South Alabama’s top-16 defense (64.3 PPG allowed, 38.5% opponent FG) and snail’s pace (63.4 possessions) capped Arkansas State at 62 and 56 points in their meetings, while the Red Wolves’ 69.8 PPG defense and tournament grind favor a low-scoring 70-64 finish, making the under my honest best over Arkansas State -4.5’s stretch or South Alabama’s upset shot.

2.) #3 Troy vs. #2 James Madison - 8:30 PM ET (ESPN+)

The No. 3 seed Troy Trojans (21-10, 13-5 Sun Belt) face the No. 2 seed James Madison Dukes (20-11, 13-5 Sun Belt) in a Sun Belt Conference Tournament Semifinal elimination game at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida. The teams met once this season on February 5, with JMU winning 64-61 at home, led by Elijah Hutchins-Everett’s 14 points and a late 5-0 run to overcome Troy’s Tayton Conerway’s 18 points. Troy enters off a 75-68 win over No. 7 Old Dominion on March 8, paced by Conerway’s 20 points, while JMU rested with a bye, last playing a 102-93 double-overtime loss to Texas State on February 28, with Mark Freeman scoring 27 points. Troy’s Conerway (16.8 PPG) drives their offense, while JMU’s Freeman (16.2 PPG) anchors the Dukes in this NCAA bid-deciding clash.

Betting Insights: Troy opens at -1.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -130, while JMU sits at +1.5 (-110) and +110. The over/under is 131.5 (-110 both ways). JMU’s 18-11 ATS record edges Troy’s 16-13, with the Dukes 1-0 ATS vs. Troy this year (+3.5 covered). Troy’s 8-6 ATS as favorites contrasts JMU’s 9-6 ATS as underdogs (5-3 at +1.5 or more). Troy’s -130 fits their five-game win streak and 38.5 RPG (2nd in Sun Belt), while JMU’s +110 tempts after their 64-61 win and 79.8 PPG offense. Their prior game hit 125 points, with Troy at 16/30 overs and JMU at 17/29, and Troy’s 70.0 PPG defense plus JMU’s 73.9 PPG allowed align with 131.5.

Best Bet: Under 131.5 (-110). Troy’s 70.0 PPG defense and JMU’s 73.9 PPG allowed, paired with their 125-point February duel and neutral-site paces (Troy 66.8, JMU 67.2 possessions), point to a gritty 65-63 finish, making the under my honest best over Troy -1.5’s slim edge or JMU’s upset chance.

WCC Tournament - Quarterfinal Preview

1.) #9 Pepperdine vs. #4 Santa Clara - 8:30 PM ET (ESPN2)

The No. 9 seed Pepperdine Waves (12-21, 4-14 WCC) face the No. 4 seed Santa Clara Broncos (20-11, 12-6 WCC) in a West Coast Conference Tournament Quarterfinal elimination game at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The teams met once this season on December 28, with Santa Clara winning 91-80 at home, led by Adama-Alpha Bal’s 19 points over Pepperdine’s Stefan Todorovic’s 16 points. Pepperdine enters off a 77-73 upset of No. 5 Oregon State on March 8, paced by Todorovic’s career-high 34 points, while Santa Clara rested with a bye, last playing a 97-66 rout of Pacific on March 1, driven by Johnny O’Neil’s 18 points. Pepperdine’s Todorovic (14.2 PPG) powers their offense, while Santa Clara’s Bal (14.8 PPG) anchors the Broncos in this postseason showdown.

Betting Insights: Santa Clara opens at -15.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -1350, while Pepperdine sits at +15.5 (-110) and +800. The over/under is 154.5 (-110 both ways). Santa Clara’s 17-13-1 ATS record edges Pepperdine’s 15-16, with the Broncos 1-0 ATS vs. Pepperdine this year (-6 covered). Santa Clara’s 9-8 ATS as favorites contrasts Pepperdine’s 10-7 ATS as underdogs (3-3 at +15.5 or more). Santa Clara’s -1350 reflects their 20-12 record and prior win, while Pepperdine’s +800 tempts after their three-game tournament win streak and 41.8% three-point shooting (3rd nationally). Their December game hit 171 points, with Pepperdine at 17/31 overs and Santa Clara at 18/30, and Santa Clara’s 70.9 PPG defense vs. Pepperdine’s 73.8 PPG offense keeps 154.5 in range.

Best Bet: Pepperdine +15.5 (-110). Pepperdine’s recent upset form—Todorovic’s 34-point outburst and 41.8% three-point shooting—pairs with their 10-7 ATS as underdogs to stay within 15, despite Santa Clara’s 91-80 win and 70.9 PPG defense, making +15.5 my honest best over -15.5’s steep ask or the total’s volatility.

2.) #6 Washington State vs. #3 San Francisco - 11:00 PM ET (ESPN2)

The No. 6 seed Washington State Cougars (19-13, 8-10 WCC) face the No. 3 seed San Francisco Dons (23-8, 13-5 WCC) in a West Coast Conference Tournament Quarterfinal elimination game at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The teams split their regular-season series this year: San Francisco won 75-51 on February 1 at home, led by Malik Thomas’s 22 points, while Washington State took a 91-82 victory on January 4 at home, paced by Ethan Price’s 25 points and a decisive 23-1 run. Washington State enters off a 94-77 rout of No. 7 Loyola Marymount on March 8, with Price dropping 22 points, while San Francisco rested with a bye, last playing a 95-75 loss to Gonzaga on March 1, where Marcus Williams scored 28 points. Washington State’s Price (15.8 PPG) drives their offense, while San Francisco’s Thomas (19.1 PPG) powers the Dons in this postseason showdown.

Betting Insights: San Francisco opens at -4.5 (-110), with a moneyline of -192, while Washington State sits at +4.5 (-110) and +160. The over/under is 148.5 (-110 both ways). San Francisco’s 18-11-1 ATS record edges Washington State’s 17-14-1, with the Dons 1-1 ATS vs. the Cougars this year (-9.5 covered, +3 not covered). San Francisco’s 10-8 ATS as favorites contrasts Washington State’s 8-6 ATS as underdogs (4-2 at +4.5 or more). San Francisco’s -192 fits their 23-8 record and February rout, while Washington State’s +160 tempts after their tournament win and 49.0% field goal shooting (14th nationally). Prior games hit 126 and 173 points, with Washington State at 17/31 overs and San Francisco at 17/30, and San Francisco’s 70.2 PPG defense vs. Washington State’s 73.9 PPG offense keeps 148.5 in play.

Best Bet: Washington State +4.5 (-110). Washington State’s 91-82 home win over San Francisco and their 94-77 tournament blowout, fueled by Price’s scoring and 49.0% field goal efficiency, keep this game tight—likely within 4 points—against a San Francisco team whose 75-51 rout was at home, making +4.5 my honest best over -4.5’s neutral-site stretch or the total’s unpredictability.